The Morning After is my favorite sports talk show in St. Louis. Each year the crew spends a week in Jupiter talking it over with the Cardinals and getting ready for the season. This is the show's tenth year going down to Spring Training. Each day I'll be recapping some of the happenings:
Lance Lynn: Lynn does not numerical goals like most players, rather he wants to take the ball every day, which he equates to making at least 30 starts, and be better than last year. He credits his durability to his arm being less stressed than other pitchers because of his build and his ability to pitch through soreness by toning his effort down. Each time he's asked to start, he believes it's his job to figure out how to compete with his stuff and his health.
In high school, Lynn's football coaches told him he had a better chance of getting a football scholarship as a linemen than a baseball scholarship. He also played basketball. He says that Yadi is said to be the best player on the team but John Lackey is pretty good too. Adam Wainwright "says he's good at everything", but Lynn points out that Waino was an All-State kicker in High School. Michael Wacha was also a high school basketball player, but Lynn says he doesn't have enough size to be effective in the post.
Two off-seasons ago Lynn lost a lot of weight, but he wasn't happy with how he performed in the following season. He said he came into that Spring Training throwing 85 MPH and realized that rather than losing the weight, he needed to be smarter about his weight. He has learned to eat better foods and is very comfortable with his weight because, "as long as get people out, you look good."
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
The Morning After at Spring Training: Day Four
The Morning After is my favorite sports talk show in St. Louis. Each year the crew spends a week in Jupiter talking it over with the Cardinals and getting ready for the season. This is the show's tenth year going down to Spring Training. Each day I'll be recapping some of the happenings:
Derrick Goold: The Post-Dispatch's Cardinals beat writer joined the show as the team prepared for the exhibition opener against the Marlins. Goold said that Carlos Martinez would be limited to thirty pitches today and the key thing to watch would be his pitch efficiency. If he were able to get through two or more innings, that would be very successful. Martinez will pitch every five days this spring and the organization wants him to win the fifth starter role. Goold is also impressed with Jaime Garcia's early spring showing and agreed with the guys that Mozielak's praise was warranted and a departure from the norm. Jaime will make his spring debut Saturday and the major question with him is figuring out how to get good innings from him in May and June rather than March and April. If he's "ready" in April, it's possible he could prove his durability in the minor leagues. Goold is unsure if Garcia will be able to prove his durability to the Cards or other teams, so his trade value may not be high by the end of Spring Training.
Goold notes that Jason Heyward is hitting second in the first lineup of the spring and that's a place he'll be used frequently during the season, but not everyday. Goold also thinks that Matt Carpenter's approach could be more power oriented this year. This approach, and not always taking the first pitch, has been something that Matt Holliday has urged repeatedly. With the exception of the Brewers, all of the teams in the Cards' division got better last year and it's unlikely the Reds will have as many injury problems. It makes sense to Goold that the Cardinals' consensus over/under win totals dropped from 91.5 last year to 87.5 this year because whichever team wins the NL Central division will face increased competition for every win.
John Lackey: Contrary to what has been reported, there has not been much conversation between Lackey and the team regarding an extension or modification to his contract. This jives with what Mozielak said on yesterday's show. Lackey said the game has been great to him and he's going to go out and continue to perform at the level he's capable. He got married this offseason and has two kids, but he's still competitive and enjoys being in a clubhouse. The Cardinals clubhouse and a chance to win this season are big reasons he's sticking around. If he'd been traded to another team, it's possible he'd be sitting at home instead of at Spring Training. Lackey said the best team he's been a part of is the 2011 Red Sox when they were hitting their mid-season stride. He started pitching hurt down the stretch and the team ultimately missed the playoffs on the final day of the season. Lackey did not have any problem with being removed in last year's NLCS Game 4. The first inning killed his pitch count but in the situation - a tie game with the pitcher's spot up - he understood why he needed to come out of the game.
Mike Claiborne: The KMOX broadcaster better known as 'Claibs joined the show prior to calling the game with Mike 'Big Irish' Shannon. Claibs discussed the team and said his ideal lineup would be Kolten Wong - Carpenter - Heyward - Holliday - Matt Adams - Yadier Molina - Jhonny Peralta - Jon Jay but it's a versatile group of hitters so the order doesn't matter much. He thinks that Carpenter's ability to make pitchers work could give Wong an edge on the basepaths but the burden would be Wong to improve his approach to the level required to hit leadoff. Lou Brock has pointed out that Wong shares some characteristics to Joe Morgan. 'Claibs does not think Heyward will hit leadoff at all this season. Molina has lost a lot of weight to help his knees, but will that come at the cost of his power? Ultimately, his defensive ability is what gives him most of his value so if he's able to stay on the field more, it will be ok if the power does not come back.
Jon Jay: There were two items to note during Jay's offseason. First, he had wrist surgery in October. Second, he signed a two year contract which buys out his last two arbitration years. He has been swinging in the cage and is looking forward to getting into spring games in the coming weeks but his only goal is to be ready for Opening Day. His wrist had been bothering him for several years and it got to a point where he needed to have the surgery to be comfortable. Even though he has the first multi-year contract of his career, he wants to continue showing the team that he belongs here beyond the next two years. Jay weighed in on Monday's discussion agreeing that Yadi's Bentley is the best car on the team. Against left-handed pitching, Jay tries to stay in the box as long as possible and he has improved his performance through drills. He's never had prolonged struggles against them but acknowledges it's something that he constantly works on.
With Daniel Descalso's departure, Jay is the last remaining member of the Memphis Mafia. As such, this is the first Spring Training he's living alone and not with a close friend. He keeps in touch with all the guys and still travels with them in the off-season. Jay feels that Heyward fits in with the team well and they've been talking all offseason. It's strange that he's now one of the leaders and he feels like it's his duty to step into the role after learning leadership from veterans like Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols and he is for the opportunity to lead. The culture surrounding the franchise is amazing as it's a family atmosphere and retired greats are constantly coming back to contribute to the organization's future success. Every postseason loss hurts, but Jay says losses like last season are easy because the team could have easily lost in 2011, so it all balances out. He constantly watches 2011 World Series highlights.
Jay has a reputation for being fashionable, but he doesn't have a preference between the red and blue caps on the road. He and Matt Holliday both like wearing the powder blue throwback uniforms, but the team has not done so since 2012. Jay will be continuing Jason Motte's charity work in St. Louis now that Motte has moved onto Chicago.
Derrick Goold: The Post-Dispatch's Cardinals beat writer joined the show as the team prepared for the exhibition opener against the Marlins. Goold said that Carlos Martinez would be limited to thirty pitches today and the key thing to watch would be his pitch efficiency. If he were able to get through two or more innings, that would be very successful. Martinez will pitch every five days this spring and the organization wants him to win the fifth starter role. Goold is also impressed with Jaime Garcia's early spring showing and agreed with the guys that Mozielak's praise was warranted and a departure from the norm. Jaime will make his spring debut Saturday and the major question with him is figuring out how to get good innings from him in May and June rather than March and April. If he's "ready" in April, it's possible he could prove his durability in the minor leagues. Goold is unsure if Garcia will be able to prove his durability to the Cards or other teams, so his trade value may not be high by the end of Spring Training.
Goold notes that Jason Heyward is hitting second in the first lineup of the spring and that's a place he'll be used frequently during the season, but not everyday. Goold also thinks that Matt Carpenter's approach could be more power oriented this year. This approach, and not always taking the first pitch, has been something that Matt Holliday has urged repeatedly. With the exception of the Brewers, all of the teams in the Cards' division got better last year and it's unlikely the Reds will have as many injury problems. It makes sense to Goold that the Cardinals' consensus over/under win totals dropped from 91.5 last year to 87.5 this year because whichever team wins the NL Central division will face increased competition for every win.
John Lackey: Contrary to what has been reported, there has not been much conversation between Lackey and the team regarding an extension or modification to his contract. This jives with what Mozielak said on yesterday's show. Lackey said the game has been great to him and he's going to go out and continue to perform at the level he's capable. He got married this offseason and has two kids, but he's still competitive and enjoys being in a clubhouse. The Cardinals clubhouse and a chance to win this season are big reasons he's sticking around. If he'd been traded to another team, it's possible he'd be sitting at home instead of at Spring Training. Lackey said the best team he's been a part of is the 2011 Red Sox when they were hitting their mid-season stride. He started pitching hurt down the stretch and the team ultimately missed the playoffs on the final day of the season. Lackey did not have any problem with being removed in last year's NLCS Game 4. The first inning killed his pitch count but in the situation - a tie game with the pitcher's spot up - he understood why he needed to come out of the game.
Mike Claiborne: The KMOX broadcaster better known as 'Claibs joined the show prior to calling the game with Mike 'Big Irish' Shannon. Claibs discussed the team and said his ideal lineup would be Kolten Wong - Carpenter - Heyward - Holliday - Matt Adams - Yadier Molina - Jhonny Peralta - Jon Jay but it's a versatile group of hitters so the order doesn't matter much. He thinks that Carpenter's ability to make pitchers work could give Wong an edge on the basepaths but the burden would be Wong to improve his approach to the level required to hit leadoff. Lou Brock has pointed out that Wong shares some characteristics to Joe Morgan. 'Claibs does not think Heyward will hit leadoff at all this season. Molina has lost a lot of weight to help his knees, but will that come at the cost of his power? Ultimately, his defensive ability is what gives him most of his value so if he's able to stay on the field more, it will be ok if the power does not come back.
Jon Jay: There were two items to note during Jay's offseason. First, he had wrist surgery in October. Second, he signed a two year contract which buys out his last two arbitration years. He has been swinging in the cage and is looking forward to getting into spring games in the coming weeks but his only goal is to be ready for Opening Day. His wrist had been bothering him for several years and it got to a point where he needed to have the surgery to be comfortable. Even though he has the first multi-year contract of his career, he wants to continue showing the team that he belongs here beyond the next two years. Jay weighed in on Monday's discussion agreeing that Yadi's Bentley is the best car on the team. Against left-handed pitching, Jay tries to stay in the box as long as possible and he has improved his performance through drills. He's never had prolonged struggles against them but acknowledges it's something that he constantly works on.
With Daniel Descalso's departure, Jay is the last remaining member of the Memphis Mafia. As such, this is the first Spring Training he's living alone and not with a close friend. He keeps in touch with all the guys and still travels with them in the off-season. Jay feels that Heyward fits in with the team well and they've been talking all offseason. It's strange that he's now one of the leaders and he feels like it's his duty to step into the role after learning leadership from veterans like Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols and he is for the opportunity to lead. The culture surrounding the franchise is amazing as it's a family atmosphere and retired greats are constantly coming back to contribute to the organization's future success. Every postseason loss hurts, but Jay says losses like last season are easy because the team could have easily lost in 2011, so it all balances out. He constantly watches 2011 World Series highlights.
Jay has a reputation for being fashionable, but he doesn't have a preference between the red and blue caps on the road. He and Matt Holliday both like wearing the powder blue throwback uniforms, but the team has not done so since 2012. Jay will be continuing Jason Motte's charity work in St. Louis now that Motte has moved onto Chicago.
Friday, March 6, 2015
The Morning After at Spring Training: Day Three
The Morning After is my favorite sports talk show in St. Louis. Each year the crew spends a week in Jupiter talking it over with the Cardinals and getting ready for the season. This is the show's tenth year going down to Spring Training. Each day I'll be recapping some of the happenings:
Today's show was a little different because the team had the day off ahead of tomorrow's season opening exhibition game.
Randal Grichuk and Sam Freeman both checked in on their way in for extra work. Freeman was previously scheduled to throw a bullpen. He's out of options and in the mix for one of the final relief spots.
John Mozeliak: The General Manager joined the show before he attended the team's scout school. The typical scout has a baseball background and likely played the game at a high level, but the scouts in camp today all have unique backgrounds. These scouts are being groomed as potential front office personnel and all have one year contracts. The club developed this program last year because it wants to be more self sufficient in replenishing its front office as talent departs to go to other teams. The team is often overwhelmed when it utilizes external sources to fill positions, so having an internal pipeline improves efficiency. One external hire that has worked out is Assistant GM Michael Girsch who formerly worked in finance. He sent Mo a sample of his evaluations and took a massive pay cut to join the team. Mo and his team have identified some market inefficiencies recently but the burden is on them to continually work to identify and take advantage of these.
The baseball industry has changed dramatically since Mo began his career. When he first started as a BP pitcher for the Rockies in 1993, he described the entire industry as, "roughly $900 million", whereas now it's, "maybe $9 billion". Since the industry has exploded it's a big business now and it is imperative to bring business techniques to the table. It's also imperative to develop proprietary solutions to problems whereas all teams contracted with the same vendors in the past.
Mo talked a little about the farm system and feels it's unfair to characterize the system as thin. The system graduated a number of top talents, so it would be impossible to match the strength offered in previous years. He acknowledges one glaring weakness is that there's no impact player at the top levels like that has been in previous years but thinks that could change with the emergence of Alex Reyes and/or Rob Kaminsky. He's pleased with the depth at the higher levels and there are a number of players who can help the MLB team this year.
One player that has impressed Mo early in camp is Jaime Garcia. Mo is interested to see how his health could impact the team and his impression of Jaime's potential contribution is much more favorable now than it was two weeks ago. The situation with Jaime will work itself out and it's important to for him and his staff to think about the best long-term plan. Specifically, he wants to be smart about how many innings each of the starting pitchers are throwing. Neither Michael Wacha nor Carlos Martinez have thrown more than 120 MLB innings in a season. The AAA rotation projects to have Tim Cooney, Tyler Lyons, and Marco Gonzales who could provide serviceable innings in the majors at some point this year. Beyond the rotation, he's not overly concerned with the composition of the bench or bullpen because spring games haven't started yet. There's little to be gained from the workouts. The Opening Day roster is not his primary concern. He's concerned about providing the organization with the best chance to win over the course of the season so player flexibility will be valued when making the decisions. This suggests out-of-options players like Pete Kozma and Sam Freeman could break camp with the team and get a chance to stick in April.
The team did its homework this offseason and explored all available options, but ultimately decided it was not worth signing a big money free agent pitcher. Had they signed a pitcher, they would have felt compelled to trade one of their current starters and Mo did not feel like he could get the value needed to make the team better by doing that. There was talk about restructuring John Lackey's contract but since paying him the league minimum was a major component of the trade last year, ultimately they decided to leave it. Mo would think about extending him but wants to let things play out for now. Lackey could also want to test free agency.
On the whole, Mo doesn't spend a lot of time reflecting on the team's success. He is constantly thinking about the future and how he can best position the team going forward. Even after winning the 2011 World Series, his attention had shifted to the impending Albert Pujols negotiations and Tony La Russa's retirement.
Marco Gonzales: Marco feels very comfortable in camp after joining the team in the postseason last year. It's nice to not be the new guy despite being a rookie. Marco talked about the great leadership on the team and said that everyone on the team would agree that Wainwright is the leader. One aspect of the 'Cardinal Way' is that the best players on the team are also the best leaders and the best people off the field.
Even though he's competing for the fifth starter spot, he doesn't know what the season will hold for him. He knows whoever is on the mound will do a good job. He loved pitching out of the bullpen, coming into high-leverage situations, and unleashing for an inning. He's been a starter all his life, but would be very comfortable and enjoy coming out of the bullpen if that's how he can best help the team. He wouldn't go as far to call himself the best hitting pitcher on the team and said that he has a leg up on the rest of the group since he was most recently a full time hitter. He'd still take himself in a competition, but Wainwright has a good amount of pop and would challenge him.
Mike Matheny: The guys covered Matheny's post-workout media availability. Most of the discussion surrounded Matheny catching Marco Gonzales and Sam Tuivailala's bullpens. Matheny likes to get a first hand look at each of the pitchers and he frequently catches them during the season. He even did it during a game in Cincinnati in 2012. Matheny said Tuivailala's breaking ball and changeup are now big league caliber. He sounded more impressed with the changeup which Tuivailala is able to throw from the same arm slot and speed as his fastball.
Question of the Day: Despite the Today's question was 'What super power could you have?'
Today's show was a little different because the team had the day off ahead of tomorrow's season opening exhibition game.
Randal Grichuk and Sam Freeman both checked in on their way in for extra work. Freeman was previously scheduled to throw a bullpen. He's out of options and in the mix for one of the final relief spots.
John Mozeliak: The General Manager joined the show before he attended the team's scout school. The typical scout has a baseball background and likely played the game at a high level, but the scouts in camp today all have unique backgrounds. These scouts are being groomed as potential front office personnel and all have one year contracts. The club developed this program last year because it wants to be more self sufficient in replenishing its front office as talent departs to go to other teams. The team is often overwhelmed when it utilizes external sources to fill positions, so having an internal pipeline improves efficiency. One external hire that has worked out is Assistant GM Michael Girsch who formerly worked in finance. He sent Mo a sample of his evaluations and took a massive pay cut to join the team. Mo and his team have identified some market inefficiencies recently but the burden is on them to continually work to identify and take advantage of these.
The baseball industry has changed dramatically since Mo began his career. When he first started as a BP pitcher for the Rockies in 1993, he described the entire industry as, "roughly $900 million", whereas now it's, "maybe $9 billion". Since the industry has exploded it's a big business now and it is imperative to bring business techniques to the table. It's also imperative to develop proprietary solutions to problems whereas all teams contracted with the same vendors in the past.
Mo talked a little about the farm system and feels it's unfair to characterize the system as thin. The system graduated a number of top talents, so it would be impossible to match the strength offered in previous years. He acknowledges one glaring weakness is that there's no impact player at the top levels like that has been in previous years but thinks that could change with the emergence of Alex Reyes and/or Rob Kaminsky. He's pleased with the depth at the higher levels and there are a number of players who can help the MLB team this year.
One player that has impressed Mo early in camp is Jaime Garcia. Mo is interested to see how his health could impact the team and his impression of Jaime's potential contribution is much more favorable now than it was two weeks ago. The situation with Jaime will work itself out and it's important to for him and his staff to think about the best long-term plan. Specifically, he wants to be smart about how many innings each of the starting pitchers are throwing. Neither Michael Wacha nor Carlos Martinez have thrown more than 120 MLB innings in a season. The AAA rotation projects to have Tim Cooney, Tyler Lyons, and Marco Gonzales who could provide serviceable innings in the majors at some point this year. Beyond the rotation, he's not overly concerned with the composition of the bench or bullpen because spring games haven't started yet. There's little to be gained from the workouts. The Opening Day roster is not his primary concern. He's concerned about providing the organization with the best chance to win over the course of the season so player flexibility will be valued when making the decisions. This suggests out-of-options players like Pete Kozma and Sam Freeman could break camp with the team and get a chance to stick in April.
The team did its homework this offseason and explored all available options, but ultimately decided it was not worth signing a big money free agent pitcher. Had they signed a pitcher, they would have felt compelled to trade one of their current starters and Mo did not feel like he could get the value needed to make the team better by doing that. There was talk about restructuring John Lackey's contract but since paying him the league minimum was a major component of the trade last year, ultimately they decided to leave it. Mo would think about extending him but wants to let things play out for now. Lackey could also want to test free agency.
On the whole, Mo doesn't spend a lot of time reflecting on the team's success. He is constantly thinking about the future and how he can best position the team going forward. Even after winning the 2011 World Series, his attention had shifted to the impending Albert Pujols negotiations and Tony La Russa's retirement.
Marco Gonzales: Marco feels very comfortable in camp after joining the team in the postseason last year. It's nice to not be the new guy despite being a rookie. Marco talked about the great leadership on the team and said that everyone on the team would agree that Wainwright is the leader. One aspect of the 'Cardinal Way' is that the best players on the team are also the best leaders and the best people off the field.
Even though he's competing for the fifth starter spot, he doesn't know what the season will hold for him. He knows whoever is on the mound will do a good job. He loved pitching out of the bullpen, coming into high-leverage situations, and unleashing for an inning. He's been a starter all his life, but would be very comfortable and enjoy coming out of the bullpen if that's how he can best help the team. He wouldn't go as far to call himself the best hitting pitcher on the team and said that he has a leg up on the rest of the group since he was most recently a full time hitter. He'd still take himself in a competition, but Wainwright has a good amount of pop and would challenge him.
Mike Matheny: The guys covered Matheny's post-workout media availability. Most of the discussion surrounded Matheny catching Marco Gonzales and Sam Tuivailala's bullpens. Matheny likes to get a first hand look at each of the pitchers and he frequently catches them during the season. He even did it during a game in Cincinnati in 2012. Matheny said Tuivailala's breaking ball and changeup are now big league caliber. He sounded more impressed with the changeup which Tuivailala is able to throw from the same arm slot and speed as his fastball.
Question of the Day: Despite the Today's question was 'What super power could you have?'
Player
|
Answer
|
Sam Freeman
|
Be invisible
|
Randal Grichuk
|
Fly
|
John Gast
|
Invisibility
|
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
The Morning After at Spring Training: Day Two
The Morning After is my favorite sports talk show in St. Louis. Each year the crew spends a week in Jupiter talking it over with the Cardinals and getting ready for the season. This is the show's tenth year going down to Spring Training. Each day I'll be recapping some of the happenings:
Matt Adams: There was an article on STLToday about Adams practicing bunting and he confirmed that he'll look to do it more this year if the opponent gives him the opportunity to get a free hit. He is not, however, doing extra bunting work, but it is an area he would like to improve. Adams is regularly shifted against and he recognizes that it has became part of the game. He is in favor of it as a strategy. He's working to stick with his approach and ignore how the other team is playing him. If he hits the ball where the pitch is thrown, he does not have much control over what happens when it leaves his bat. The 2015 team is hungry to get past last year's early exit. Adams wants to build on his first full season as a starter by improving against left-handed pitching. He was able to do it in the minor leagues but needs to make adjustments to the major league quality arms. This offseason he did a number of drills to help him track the ball out of left-handed pitchers' hands, but the best way to improve is by facing live pitching. Adams credited Jose Oquendo with his improvement as a defensive first baseman and touched on the team's use of shifting to put him in a position to make plays.
Matt played along and answered yesterday's questions of the day saying that Kolten Wong is the Cardinal most likely to get a pedicure. Adams enjoys tanlines, saying that all players are prone to them because they don't have time to go to the beach. Most importantly, he settled the nickname debate by saying 'Big City' is his favorite because it was coined by Lance Berkman and David Freese. Finally, the guys asked who would win a fight between him and Matt Holliday. Big City noted that Holliday has grown man strength and Adams is not a fighter, so Holliday would probably win.
Michael Wacha: Wacha immediately addressed the questions surrounding his health and said his arm feels great. He's been recovering well after each day's activities and particularly after bullpens. When he was diagnosed with the stress reaction last year, he recognized that there was not a lot of information available to him and the team about a rehab procedure or timeline. Last year's injury was the first time Wacha could recall being hurt for a significant amount of time. He thinks his coaches did a good job of preventing overuse and keeping his arm healthy growing up and poinsted out that he did not specialize in pitching. Additionally, he didn't throw a curveball until late in his high school career, and he half jokingly said that's why it develop slowly in college. This year he's staying more active in the weight room in an effort to keep his arm healthier.
Eventually the conversation shifted to last year's playoffs. Wacha said he tried to stay sharp during the playoff run by throwing bullpens and off flat ground. By the time he was called into Game Five of the NLCS, he felt that he was passed the injury and his arm felt great. Obviously the appearance didn't go the way he wanted to, but he has put the appearance behind him just like he put the success of the 2013 Postseason behind him when he came into 2014. He'd prefer to set team goals, but he wants to throw 200 innings and make all of his starts because it would help the team.
Question of the Day: Today the Plowboy was asking the players which celebrity they'd take a steam with and if they use a loofa or a washcloth when they bath. The best answer today came from John Lackey! Here are the results:
Matt Adams: There was an article on STLToday about Adams practicing bunting and he confirmed that he'll look to do it more this year if the opponent gives him the opportunity to get a free hit. He is not, however, doing extra bunting work, but it is an area he would like to improve. Adams is regularly shifted against and he recognizes that it has became part of the game. He is in favor of it as a strategy. He's working to stick with his approach and ignore how the other team is playing him. If he hits the ball where the pitch is thrown, he does not have much control over what happens when it leaves his bat. The 2015 team is hungry to get past last year's early exit. Adams wants to build on his first full season as a starter by improving against left-handed pitching. He was able to do it in the minor leagues but needs to make adjustments to the major league quality arms. This offseason he did a number of drills to help him track the ball out of left-handed pitchers' hands, but the best way to improve is by facing live pitching. Adams credited Jose Oquendo with his improvement as a defensive first baseman and touched on the team's use of shifting to put him in a position to make plays.
Matt played along and answered yesterday's questions of the day saying that Kolten Wong is the Cardinal most likely to get a pedicure. Adams enjoys tanlines, saying that all players are prone to them because they don't have time to go to the beach. Most importantly, he settled the nickname debate by saying 'Big City' is his favorite because it was coined by Lance Berkman and David Freese. Finally, the guys asked who would win a fight between him and Matt Holliday. Big City noted that Holliday has grown man strength and Adams is not a fighter, so Holliday would probably win.
Taping a lunch interview with Matt Adams for @FSMidwest . We discuss condiments. #STLCards pic.twitter.com/KIQ4sNMP8k
— Jim Hayes (@TheCatOnFox) February 21, 2015
Michael Wacha: Wacha immediately addressed the questions surrounding his health and said his arm feels great. He's been recovering well after each day's activities and particularly after bullpens. When he was diagnosed with the stress reaction last year, he recognized that there was not a lot of information available to him and the team about a rehab procedure or timeline. Last year's injury was the first time Wacha could recall being hurt for a significant amount of time. He thinks his coaches did a good job of preventing overuse and keeping his arm healthy growing up and poinsted out that he did not specialize in pitching. Additionally, he didn't throw a curveball until late in his high school career, and he half jokingly said that's why it develop slowly in college. This year he's staying more active in the weight room in an effort to keep his arm healthier.
Eventually the conversation shifted to last year's playoffs. Wacha said he tried to stay sharp during the playoff run by throwing bullpens and off flat ground. By the time he was called into Game Five of the NLCS, he felt that he was passed the injury and his arm felt great. Obviously the appearance didn't go the way he wanted to, but he has put the appearance behind him just like he put the success of the 2013 Postseason behind him when he came into 2014. He'd prefer to set team goals, but he wants to throw 200 innings and make all of his starts because it would help the team.
Question of the Day: Today the Plowboy was asking the players which celebrity they'd take a steam with and if they use a loofa or a washcloth when they bath. The best answer today came from John Lackey! Here are the results:
Player
|
Celebrity Steam
|
Loofa or Washcloth
|
Greg Garcia
|
Pass
|
N/A
|
Randal Grichuk
|
Pass, but
changed to Jim Hayes
|
Washcloth
|
Stephen Piscotty
|
Never steamed
before
|
Neither
|
Matt Adams
|
One of the
models
|
Audio cut out
|
Unidentified
|
Can’t answer
|
Washcloth
|
Matt Carpenter
|
Ignored
|
|
Tony Cruz
|
Not sure. Tough
question, no comment.
|
Washcloth
|
John Lackey
|
Not sure. A
steam is a solo mission.
|
Washcloth
|
Xavier Scruggs
|
Does not steam
|
Does not shower
|
Jordan Walden
|
Burt Reynolds
|
N/A
|
Jon Jay
|
Allen Craig
|
Washcloth
|
Matt Holliday
|
Does not steam or
know what it means, but he’ll go with Jim Hayes
|
Washcloth
|
Lance Lynn
|
Ignored, talked
to Seth Maness
|
|
Mark Reynolds
|
Matt Holliday
|
Loofa, have to
exfoliate
|
Derek Lilliquist
|
Cameron Diaz
|
Washcloth
|
Randy Choate
|
Babe Ruth
|
Loofa
|
Michael Wacha
|
N/A
|
Loofa
|
John Mabry
|
Does not like Jim Hayes, but uses a washcloth
|
|
Adam Wainwright
|
Ignored
|
|
Monday, March 2, 2015
The Morning After at Spring Training: Day One
The Morning After is my favorite sports talk show in St. Louis. Each year the crew spends a week in Jupiter talking it over with the Cardinals and getting ready for the season. This is the show's tenth year going down to Spring Training. Each day I'll be recapping some of the happenings:
Kolten Wong: Kolten Wong became the first player to mosey on over to the picnic table and join the show. The guys really knocked it out of the park during the first interview discussing Wong's grocery shopping habits and the cars in the player's parking lot. Randy Choate drives a white Corvette that reads 'Holla', but Wong said the best car in the lot is Yadi's Bentley.
Mark Reynolds: The guys welcomed new comer Mark Reynolds to the picnic table and immediately asked him about fitting in on his new team. He spoke at length about how Matt Holliday invited Reynolds and his family over to his house for dinner and to relax after the first day of Spring Training. Matt Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were also at Holliday's and the group discussed hitting for about half an hour after dinner. Wainwright explained to the hitters how he tries to get them out, while the hitters talked about approaching Wainwright. Reynolds is looking forward to having a well defined role as last year he platooned with Lyle Overbay. He did not like having to check the lineup card everyday to learn if he'd be playing or not. He does not expect to get a full season of at-bats as he realizes he'll open the season with bench role, but he's hopeful his role will increase with a strong performance. He recognizes that he'll need to adjust his routine to get ready for taking one, key at-bat each day and he jokingly said it will be fun to face late inning relievers throwing mid to upper 90s. One example of an encounter against a reliever, and a St. Louis moment, that he fondly recalled was a home run he hit against Jason Motte which received an assist from Randy Winn. Reynolds also spoke about the BFIB as he said its great to play in St. Louis due to the fan support and knowledge - specifically when they cheer a player hitting a groundball to second to move a runner over. Reynolds is a golf buddy of former Cardinal Kyle Lohse, who has made no secret about his golfing ability. Reynolds said that Lohse is very locked in when they're on the course. Despite Lohse being a better golf, Reynolds has beaten him a couple of times. Lohse denied this:
Mike Matheny: Matheny remains the only manager in the major leagues who formerly had a St. Louis sports talk radio show. The show ended shortly after a 'Sassy Cassy' advertisement inadvertently aired during his show.
Matheny said that everyone is looking good and ready to play. These days it's not as much a matter of getting into shape, but getting up to game speed. As he was sitting down at the picnic table, Adam Wainwright was preparing to throw a light bullpen and Mike is not concerned about Wainwright's side going forward. Right now there are not too many questions to answer for the team to answer, but there are a few opportunities for players to make the team and, more importantly, show the MLB staff what they can do in case they are needed during the season. He gave brief updates on the fifth starter competition noting that Carlos Martinez has brought a new attitude to the table, Jaime Garcia is surprising everyone with how sharp he looks, and Marco Gonzales has added some new skills. The coaching staff has emphasized to Jason Heyward that he is not expected to carry the lineup and he should be whatever type of hitter he wants and the team will be happy. Matheny briefly addressed his lineup philosophy and revealed that seemingly minor day-to-day changes are often made for reasons that cannot be disclosed. There are times the team does not want to call attention to a struggling player down in media, so they elevate him in the lineup to boost his confidence.
The hosts asked Matheny about the three previous postseasons and if any of them hurt more than the others. Matheny said they all stung the same and that last year San Francisco took advantage of some situations the Cards failed to do. Like 2013, he was proud of the team for getting past the Dodgers. Last year's playoff exit took a little longer for him and the team to get over but they are ready to go in 2015.
Question of the Day: The QOD is an essential part of TMA's Spring Training coverage. Each day one of the producers - this year the Peoria Plowboy - asks the players a question or two as they emerge from the clubhouse. Today's questions were 'Tanlines on a teammate - yay or nay?' and 'Which player would be most likely to get a pedicure?'
Here's how the responses shook out:
Kolten Wong: Kolten Wong became the first player to mosey on over to the picnic table and join the show. The guys really knocked it out of the park during the first interview discussing Wong's grocery shopping habits and the cars in the player's parking lot. Randy Choate drives a white Corvette that reads 'Holla', but Wong said the best car in the lot is Yadi's Bentley.
Randy Choate is a strong contender for best car in the player lot. #STLCards pic.twitter.com/jFDIxp60Qu
— Jim Hayes (@TheCatOnFox) February 22, 2015
After getting the hard-hitting questions out of the way, they started to talk baseball. Kolten is very excited about the team, particularly Jason Heyward who he views as a Gold Glove rightfielder capable of hitting anywhere in the lineup with speed. Heyward has already jelled with the guys in the clubhouse. Wong dislikes being described as a little guy with a surprising amount of pop. He was overall happy with his 2014 which included the up and downs between the minors and injuries. The ending was strong and his goal for 2015 is to increase his average. His 15 home runs between MLB and AAA in 2014 were the most he's ever had in a season and he admits to falling in love with the long ball a little bit last season so he's going to try and be a little shorter with his swing this year. His playoff performance was a big confidence boost and he feels like he belongs in the majors. At times last year he admits that he was playing scared and he took the time in AAA to reignite his fire and prove that he could hang in the majors. During the playoffs, it seemed like everything was going the Giants way and that continued into the World Series. He didn't think his Game 2 walk-off was gone when he hit it. Kolten is willing to hit anywhere in the lineup but describes his approach as aggressive and recognizes that he may need to talk to Matt Carpenter about being more selective were Mike Matheny to ask him to hit leadoff.
Mark Reynolds: The guys welcomed new comer Mark Reynolds to the picnic table and immediately asked him about fitting in on his new team. He spoke at length about how Matt Holliday invited Reynolds and his family over to his house for dinner and to relax after the first day of Spring Training. Matt Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were also at Holliday's and the group discussed hitting for about half an hour after dinner. Wainwright explained to the hitters how he tries to get them out, while the hitters talked about approaching Wainwright. Reynolds is looking forward to having a well defined role as last year he platooned with Lyle Overbay. He did not like having to check the lineup card everyday to learn if he'd be playing or not. He does not expect to get a full season of at-bats as he realizes he'll open the season with bench role, but he's hopeful his role will increase with a strong performance. He recognizes that he'll need to adjust his routine to get ready for taking one, key at-bat each day and he jokingly said it will be fun to face late inning relievers throwing mid to upper 90s. One example of an encounter against a reliever, and a St. Louis moment, that he fondly recalled was a home run he hit against Jason Motte which received an assist from Randy Winn. Reynolds also spoke about the BFIB as he said its great to play in St. Louis due to the fan support and knowledge - specifically when they cheer a player hitting a groundball to second to move a runner over. Reynolds is a golf buddy of former Cardinal Kyle Lohse, who has made no secret about his golfing ability. Reynolds said that Lohse is very locked in when they're on the course. Despite Lohse being a better golf, Reynolds has beaten him a couple of times. Lohse denied this:
@TheCatOnFox @TMASTL That's Mark for ya. The eternal "optimist". #NoChance #Delusional #HeNeeds3aSide #WontPlayMeFor$ #ConcentrateOnYaDayJob
— Kyle Lohse (@KyleLohse26) March 2, 2015
Interestingly, Reynolds does not hit for power on the golf course and tries to keep the ball in play, whereas Lohse makes it a point to out-drive him whenever they play.Mike Matheny: Matheny remains the only manager in the major leagues who formerly had a St. Louis sports talk radio show. The show ended shortly after a 'Sassy Cassy' advertisement inadvertently aired during his show.
Matheny said that everyone is looking good and ready to play. These days it's not as much a matter of getting into shape, but getting up to game speed. As he was sitting down at the picnic table, Adam Wainwright was preparing to throw a light bullpen and Mike is not concerned about Wainwright's side going forward. Right now there are not too many questions to answer for the team to answer, but there are a few opportunities for players to make the team and, more importantly, show the MLB staff what they can do in case they are needed during the season. He gave brief updates on the fifth starter competition noting that Carlos Martinez has brought a new attitude to the table, Jaime Garcia is surprising everyone with how sharp he looks, and Marco Gonzales has added some new skills. The coaching staff has emphasized to Jason Heyward that he is not expected to carry the lineup and he should be whatever type of hitter he wants and the team will be happy. Matheny briefly addressed his lineup philosophy and revealed that seemingly minor day-to-day changes are often made for reasons that cannot be disclosed. There are times the team does not want to call attention to a struggling player down in media, so they elevate him in the lineup to boost his confidence.
The hosts asked Matheny about the three previous postseasons and if any of them hurt more than the others. Matheny said they all stung the same and that last year San Francisco took advantage of some situations the Cards failed to do. Like 2013, he was proud of the team for getting past the Dodgers. Last year's playoff exit took a little longer for him and the team to get over but they are ready to go in 2015.
Question of the Day: The QOD is an essential part of TMA's Spring Training coverage. Each day one of the producers - this year the Peoria Plowboy - asks the players a question or two as they emerge from the clubhouse. Today's questions were 'Tanlines on a teammate - yay or nay?' and 'Which player would be most likely to get a pedicure?'
Here's how the responses shook out:
Player
|
Question 1
|
Question 2
|
Nick Greenwood
|
Ignored Question
|
|
Dean Anna
|
Ignored Question
|
|
Mike Mayers
|
Ignored Question
|
|
Carlos Martinez
|
Ignored by Plowboy
|
|
Mitch Harris
|
N/A
|
Cody Stanley
|
Jacob Wilson
|
No
|
N/A
|
Kolten Wong
|
Baseball players play in
the sun
|
Kolten Wong
|
Jon Jay
|
Yes
|
Randal Grichuk
|
Jason Heyward
|
N/A
|
Doesn’t know them well
enough
|
Mark Reynolds
|
Yes
|
Matt Carpenter
|
John Lackey
|
“Yeah, good luck with that”;
Walked to Parking Lot
|
|
Matt Holliday
|
Yes
|
Matt Carpenter
|
Saturday, February 28, 2015
Trading for Cole Hamels
This post was in the works prior to the Tuesday's news that Adam Wainwright would be returning to St. Louis due to abdominal soreness. The Cardinals expect to receive the results of the examination later this week. I'm in favor of trading for Hamels even if Wainwright is completely healthy, but if Wainwright is hurt and will miss a significant amount of time, the importance of making a trade increases.
The Cardinals should seriously consider trading for Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, even if it means including Carlos Martinez. The Cubs and Pirates are young teams that will improve each year. The Cubs in particular seemed poised to utilize their outstanding farm system and massive financial resources to get better in a hurry. On the flip side, the Cardinals core of Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, and Yadier Molina will be a combined 100 years old this year, Jason Heyward is a free agent at the end of the season, and, outside of Stephen Piscotty, there is scant offensive talent on the horizon in the farm system.
The Cardinals should seriously consider trading for Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, even if it means including Carlos Martinez. The Cubs and Pirates are young teams that will improve each year. The Cubs in particular seemed poised to utilize their outstanding farm system and massive financial resources to get better in a hurry. On the flip side, the Cardinals core of Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, and Yadier Molina will be a combined 100 years old this year, Jason Heyward is a free agent at the end of the season, and, outside of Stephen Piscotty, there is scant offensive talent on the horizon in the farm system.
If all of the Cardinals starters are healthy, they have one of the best rotations in the league. However, there are significant questions surrounding the health of their top two projected starters, Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha, and the depth beyond Marco Gonzales is thin. Additionally, John Lackey will be 36 and posted a 4.27 FIP and 4.30 ERA in his ten starts with the team in 2014. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projects him to be just above replacement level. This is fine for a fourth or fifth starter, but an injury to the top of the rotation pushes Lackey into the third starter role and he is not suited for it.
What would a trade for Hamels look like? It has been reported that the Phillies have stated that any trade with the Cards will start with Carlos Martinez. I’d be ok with that. As detailed in my fifth starter post, Martinez oozes with upside, but he has some work to do to convert the raw talent into MLB production. While the Cards can afford to give him a chance to do this as a fifth starter, asking much more from him is a stretch. The issues he faces in his development are significant and I think it's highly likely that he becomes a valuable relief pitcher rather than a starter.
The Cards top three prospects are Gonzales, outfielder Stephen Piscotty, and young right-handed pitcher Alex Reyes and they are all among the top 100 prospects in baseball. If the Cards are including Martinez, it’s unlikely that they would also include any of those players unless Philadelphia agreed to pay a significant portion of Hamels’ future salaries. Despite making his MLB debut last summer and contributing through the playoffs, Randal Grichuk is still eligible for inclusion on the prospect lists and ranked as high as fourth on Baseball America's. That's decidedly too high and he should be ranked somewhere in the 8-15 range. All of the scouting reports acknowledge he has above average power and is an excellent athlete capable of playing all three outfield positions. They also acknowledge that his approach needs to be refined. Even without an improved approach, his positives outweigh the negatives and he could provide at least average value in MLB this year. I touched more on Grichuk in my post on the bench. He is only 23 years old and would be an obvious second piece to any deal. It's possible the Phillies would prefer Peter Bourjos to Grichuk. While I like Bourjos' chances of bouncing back from his awful 2014 season, I think he and Grichuk have about the same trade value. I'd rather give up Grichuk, but would not hesitate to make a deal if the only difference was giving up Bourjos instead of Grichuk.
The third, and possible fourth pieces, will take the most work to agree on. If the trade includes Martinez and Grichuk, the Phillies will have already received two players capable of contributing to this year’s team, so they will likely seek one or two high-upside players. I have to think young outfielder Magneuris Sierra would be at the top of the Phillies’ list.
Sierra was the Cards’ minor league player of the year last season after hitting .386/.434/.505 in the Gulf Coast League as an 18 year old. He made the back halves of Keith Law and Baseball America’s organizational top 10 prospects and garnered a 'Prospect on the Rise' mention from Baseball Prospectus. He is a no doubt future center fielder with good speed and outstanding bat control, leading some to project a plus bat. He has a small frame and only had 17 XBHs in his 223 PAs, so he does not project to ever hit for much power. He just completed his first season in the United States and played in the Gulf Coast League. He's very far away and his highly conservative rankings reflect this. In order to improve his value, he'll need to show that he can play at a high level in a full season league. He may get the chance to do this in 2015, but the Cards could hold him in Extended Spring Training until the New York-Penn League starts in the summer. As enticing as Sierra's upside is, it's more likely that he flames out in full season ball and this is the peak of his value. Trading him could come back to bite the Cards, but he is exactly the type of player the Phillies should be seeking to round out a Hamels trade.
A package of Carlos Martinez, Randal Grichuk, and Magneuris Sierra should be enough to pry Hamels from the Phillies. The Cards have the financial resources to absorb the remaining money due on his contract and adding him to a rotation maximizes the team’s chances of winning before its window closes. Swapping Martinez for Hamels greatly improves the 2015 and 2016 rotations without hurting the team much beyond that. While there’s a chance that Grichuk develops into an everyday centerfielder, there remain significant questions regarding his aggressive approach and struggles against same-side pitching. Those could prevent him from reaching his ceiling. Finally, Sierra offers the highest upside of any prospect outside of the Cards’ top three prospects. None of their top prospects should be included in a trade unless the Phillies eat some of Hamels’ money. Sierra is a long way away and while he could develop quickly, it’s unlikely he’ll be contributing at the major league level until 2018 at the earliest. He’s exactly the type of player the Phillies should look to acquire a third piece in any Hamels trade as he’s not a top prospect, but if he’s able to repeat his GCL performance in a full season league, will see his prospect stock ascend.
This is really about the Cardinals current team composition, the competitive landscape, and their resources. They are an aging team with a shallow rotation. Adding a Cy-Young caliber arm, capable of making 30 starts a year, would do wonders to any team, but would bring stability to a rotation with a lot of questions. The Cards division is improving quickly and the Cards should seek to maximize their chances of winning while the younger teams are still improving. Finally, the Cardinals have stated they have significant financial flexibility. It's clear they will be major players in next year's free agent market and getting Hamels now somewhat limits the downside risk associated with free agents because he is only under contract for four years. Any pitcher signed in next year's free agency will likely require six or more years, so Hamels is a significantly less risky asset than would be available on the open market.
This is really about the Cardinals current team composition, the competitive landscape, and their resources. They are an aging team with a shallow rotation. Adding a Cy-Young caliber arm, capable of making 30 starts a year, would do wonders to any team, but would bring stability to a rotation with a lot of questions. The Cards division is improving quickly and the Cards should seek to maximize their chances of winning while the younger teams are still improving. Finally, the Cardinals have stated they have significant financial flexibility. It's clear they will be major players in next year's free agent market and getting Hamels now somewhat limits the downside risk associated with free agents because he is only under contract for four years. Any pitcher signed in next year's free agency will likely require six or more years, so Hamels is a significantly less risky asset than would be available on the open market.
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Spring Training Preview, Question 6: Jason Heyward
In a series of seven posts, I'll be looking at some early spring issues facing the Cardinals. Today's question covers right-fielder Jason Heyward, the team's key offseason acquisition.
The biggest move of the Cardinals offseason was acquiring right-fielder Jason Heyward and relief pitcher Jordan Walden from the Braves in exchange for pitchers Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Miller has made 31 starts in his first two MLB seasons, accumulating 2.4 fWAR and a career 3.33 ERA. He finished third in the 2013 NL Rookie of the Year award and turned his 2014 season around in the second half. Still, significant questions remain about his ultimate ceiling. He has four seasons of control remaining. Jenkins is the ultimate lottery ticket and has battled numerous arm problems since being drafted out of high school in 2010. He was healthy in the Arizona Fall League, showed his best stuff in years, and vaulted into Keith Law's top 100 prospects. Heyward is a free agent at the end of the season and will only be 26 when he hits the market. The Cardinals are all but guaranteed to make a qualifying offer to him and receive a first round pick if he signs elsewhere, which seems likely since he'll likely command $180-200 million over a ten year contract. Since debuting with a Grand Slam for his hometown team, Heyward has faced exceedingly high expectations. He's a very smart ballplayer and constantly looks for ways to add value and help his team win. He has consistently rated as one of the best defensive rightfielders in the game and has two Gold Gloves to show for it.
The questions about Heyward center around his offensive game, particularly his power. After debuting with a .456 slugging percentage and 52 extra base hits, he struggled to a .384 SLG in his second season. In that second season, he surged out of the gates and hit .263/.354/.525 in April. He struggled to a .098/.229/.122 May before hitting the DL with a strained shoulder. He returned in the middle of June and only hit .234/.321/.379 the rest of season as the Braves collapsed and ultimately missed the playoffs. He bounced back from the down 2011 to hit 27 home runs and slug .479 in 2012 and slugged .427 in another injury shortened 2013.
He had the lowest slugging percentage of his career in 2014 at .384 and his isolated power of .113 was in between Jose Reyes and Denard Span. What happened? According to Heyward he was asked to bat leadoff 94 times in 2014, something he had only done 31 times in the proceeding four seasons, and he drastically changed his approach to emphasize getting on base. Is there something to this? In 2014, Heyward swung at the first pitch in 67, 10.3%, of his 649 PAs. In the first four years of his career, he swung at the first pitch in 184, 8.5%, of his 2,170 PAs. Prior to 2014 he had also done a lot more damage on first pitches, hitting .373/.386/.638. In 2014, he only hit .299/.299/.358 on first pitches. One would expect a leadoff hitter to be more patient and Heyward did see 3.93 pitches per plate appearance in 2014. That was good for 51st among all qualified hitters, but was tied for the lowest of his career. He has been over four pitches per plate appearance in each year of his career with the exception of 2011 and 2014.
Like Matt Adams, Heyward also saw his a large drop in his average fly ball distance. Heyward's fell almost 20 feet from 2013 to 2014 - even more than Adams'. Due to this drop Heyward had terrible performance on his fly balls last year, hitting .180 with a .119 BABIP. Removing his 11 HRs, he hit 159 fly balls and only 19 of them fell in for hits. Regardless of how far a fly ball is being hit, that's incredibly bad luck and should change in 2015.
Heyward also uncharacteristically struggled hitting to the opposite field. In 2014 he hit .274 and slugged .347 with just five extra base hits on batted balls to left field. For the rest of his career he has hit .344 and slugged .515 when he hits the ball to left field. His batted ball profile for balls hit to the opposite field was not substantially different than the rest of his career:
#Some rounding error exists on the career numbers
Again, it's clear that Heyward got extremely unlucky on his performance to balls hit to the opposite field in 2014. This was compounded by the fact that he was hitting more of them:
The other question about Heyward's offensive ability is his performance against left-handed pitching. It was downright atrocious in 2014 and some fans and media are wondering if the Cards would be better off platooning him in RF with a right-handed hitter like Randal Grichuk, who thrives against left-handed pitching. Heyward was hit in the face by Jon Niese on August 21st, 2013. He returned to play nine games in late September and started each of the Braves' division series games against the Dodgers. Coming into 2014, he had hit .232/.312/.377 in his career vs left-handed pitching and in 2014 he cratered to .169/.252/.225 in 159 PAs.
There is some thought that the HBP in August, 2013 affected his approach, but the numbers suggest his production against lefties in 2014 was merely a product of bad luck. His K/BB ratio against left-handed pitchers was 0.38 for 2010-2013 and 0.34 for 2014, nearly equivalent. The biggest difference was his BABIP which was 0.287 in 2010-2013 and 0.208 in 2014. He did hit slightly more groundballs, at the expense of line drives, against left-handed pitchers in 2014 than his career average, but not enough to impact his BABIP by 79 points. I'd expect for his performance against left-handed pitching to bounce back in 2015.
I'm excited to see what Heyward can do this year. The team stated that he will not be asked to lead off and he's indicated that he could tap into more power by utilizing a different approach by hitting further down in the lineup. While I do not completely buy into that, I do think he'll show much better power than he did in 2014. Turner Field and Busch Stadium are about equally average places for left-handed batters to hit, so there will not be a large adjustment to his numbers from that perspective. Any question of platooning him should be forgotton: Heyward is an everyday player. According to Baseball Prospectus, he's been on the DL four times in his career and missed a total of 82 games. Two of those stints were for appendicitis and the previously mentioned HBP - fluke injuries. He has not been on the DL with another, less random injury since May 2011 when he hurt his shoulder. Removing the flukish DL stints, Heyward has played in 93.5% of his team's games. His defensive value alone makes it imperative for Matheny to get him in the lineup everyday, and if he hits the way he's capable off, he's a surefire MVP candidate. Hopefully Heyward is able to answer the questions surrounding his offensive ability and change the conversation to questions about his pending free agency.
The biggest move of the Cardinals offseason was acquiring right-fielder Jason Heyward and relief pitcher Jordan Walden from the Braves in exchange for pitchers Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Miller has made 31 starts in his first two MLB seasons, accumulating 2.4 fWAR and a career 3.33 ERA. He finished third in the 2013 NL Rookie of the Year award and turned his 2014 season around in the second half. Still, significant questions remain about his ultimate ceiling. He has four seasons of control remaining. Jenkins is the ultimate lottery ticket and has battled numerous arm problems since being drafted out of high school in 2010. He was healthy in the Arizona Fall League, showed his best stuff in years, and vaulted into Keith Law's top 100 prospects. Heyward is a free agent at the end of the season and will only be 26 when he hits the market. The Cardinals are all but guaranteed to make a qualifying offer to him and receive a first round pick if he signs elsewhere, which seems likely since he'll likely command $180-200 million over a ten year contract. Since debuting with a Grand Slam for his hometown team, Heyward has faced exceedingly high expectations. He's a very smart ballplayer and constantly looks for ways to add value and help his team win. He has consistently rated as one of the best defensive rightfielders in the game and has two Gold Gloves to show for it.
The questions about Heyward center around his offensive game, particularly his power. After debuting with a .456 slugging percentage and 52 extra base hits, he struggled to a .384 SLG in his second season. In that second season, he surged out of the gates and hit .263/.354/.525 in April. He struggled to a .098/.229/.122 May before hitting the DL with a strained shoulder. He returned in the middle of June and only hit .234/.321/.379 the rest of season as the Braves collapsed and ultimately missed the playoffs. He bounced back from the down 2011 to hit 27 home runs and slug .479 in 2012 and slugged .427 in another injury shortened 2013.
He had the lowest slugging percentage of his career in 2014 at .384 and his isolated power of .113 was in between Jose Reyes and Denard Span. What happened? According to Heyward he was asked to bat leadoff 94 times in 2014, something he had only done 31 times in the proceeding four seasons, and he drastically changed his approach to emphasize getting on base. Is there something to this? In 2014, Heyward swung at the first pitch in 67, 10.3%, of his 649 PAs. In the first four years of his career, he swung at the first pitch in 184, 8.5%, of his 2,170 PAs. Prior to 2014 he had also done a lot more damage on first pitches, hitting .373/.386/.638. In 2014, he only hit .299/.299/.358 on first pitches. One would expect a leadoff hitter to be more patient and Heyward did see 3.93 pitches per plate appearance in 2014. That was good for 51st among all qualified hitters, but was tied for the lowest of his career. He has been over four pitches per plate appearance in each year of his career with the exception of 2011 and 2014.
Like Matt Adams, Heyward also saw his a large drop in his average fly ball distance. Heyward's fell almost 20 feet from 2013 to 2014 - even more than Adams'. Due to this drop Heyward had terrible performance on his fly balls last year, hitting .180 with a .119 BABIP. Removing his 11 HRs, he hit 159 fly balls and only 19 of them fell in for hits. Regardless of how far a fly ball is being hit, that's incredibly bad luck and should change in 2015.
Heyward also uncharacteristically struggled hitting to the opposite field. In 2014 he hit .274 and slugged .347 with just five extra base hits on batted balls to left field. For the rest of his career he has hit .344 and slugged .515 when he hits the ball to left field. His batted ball profile for balls hit to the opposite field was not substantially different than the rest of his career:
LD
|
GB
|
FB
|
IFFB
|
|
2014
|
20.8%
|
20%
|
59.2%
|
13.5%
|
Career#
|
20.2%
|
19.6%
|
59.9%
|
22.5%
|
Again, it's clear that Heyward got extremely unlucky on his performance to balls hit to the opposite field in 2014. This was compounded by the fact that he was hitting more of them:
LF
|
CF
|
RF
|
|
2014
|
26.2%
|
33.7%
|
40.2%
|
Career
|
19%
|
30.4%
|
50.5%
|
This is the NUMBER ONE area Heyward must improve on in 2014. It's nice to hit the ball to the opposite field, especially when it's pitched away, but hitters do their damage hitting the ball to their pull side. He must resume pulling the ball more frequently and stop trying to go to the opposite field. This is the one area it makes sense that he altered his approach as a leadoff hitter. Leadoff hitters would try to make contact and get on base, even if it means sacrificing pull side power to dink hits the opposite field. Heyward, however, must pull the baseball because he has more power potential than most players in the game. He's a career .309 hitter with a .508 slugging to RF and 20.2% of his fly balls to RF have left the yard.
The other question about Heyward's offensive ability is his performance against left-handed pitching. It was downright atrocious in 2014 and some fans and media are wondering if the Cards would be better off platooning him in RF with a right-handed hitter like Randal Grichuk, who thrives against left-handed pitching. Heyward was hit in the face by Jon Niese on August 21st, 2013. He returned to play nine games in late September and started each of the Braves' division series games against the Dodgers. Coming into 2014, he had hit .232/.312/.377 in his career vs left-handed pitching and in 2014 he cratered to .169/.252/.225 in 159 PAs.
There is some thought that the HBP in August, 2013 affected his approach, but the numbers suggest his production against lefties in 2014 was merely a product of bad luck. His K/BB ratio against left-handed pitchers was 0.38 for 2010-2013 and 0.34 for 2014, nearly equivalent. The biggest difference was his BABIP which was 0.287 in 2010-2013 and 0.208 in 2014. He did hit slightly more groundballs, at the expense of line drives, against left-handed pitchers in 2014 than his career average, but not enough to impact his BABIP by 79 points. I'd expect for his performance against left-handed pitching to bounce back in 2015.
I'm excited to see what Heyward can do this year. The team stated that he will not be asked to lead off and he's indicated that he could tap into more power by utilizing a different approach by hitting further down in the lineup. While I do not completely buy into that, I do think he'll show much better power than he did in 2014. Turner Field and Busch Stadium are about equally average places for left-handed batters to hit, so there will not be a large adjustment to his numbers from that perspective. Any question of platooning him should be forgotton: Heyward is an everyday player. According to Baseball Prospectus, he's been on the DL four times in his career and missed a total of 82 games. Two of those stints were for appendicitis and the previously mentioned HBP - fluke injuries. He has not been on the DL with another, less random injury since May 2011 when he hurt his shoulder. Removing the flukish DL stints, Heyward has played in 93.5% of his team's games. His defensive value alone makes it imperative for Matheny to get him in the lineup everyday, and if he hits the way he's capable off, he's a surefire MVP candidate. Hopefully Heyward is able to answer the questions surrounding his offensive ability and change the conversation to questions about his pending free agency.
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