For the purpose of this post, I'm assuming Marco Gonzales is going to AAA to continue to develop as a starter, Carlos Martinez will be the fifth starter, and Jaime Garcia will open the season in extended Spring Training.
In his first three seasons as the Cards’ manager, Mike Matheny has not relied heavily on the bullpen. Thanks to consistent production from starters like Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, Cardinals relievers rank 22nd in innings pitched since the start of 2012. Over that same span, they are in the back half of the MLB in RP fWAR, ERA, and FIP. In sum, it's been a pretty below average bullpen.
Somewhat unsurprisingly, Matheny has exceedingly taxed his most "trusted" relievers. Since the start of 2012, only the Nationals and Reds have gotten more innings out of there top three relievers in each season that the Cardinals. Here's the top five:
|
Team
|
Total RP IP
|
Top 3 IP
|
%
|
|
Nationals
|
1,461
|
654.2
|
44.81%
|
|
Reds
|
1,327
|
584.1
|
44.03%
|
|
Cardinals
|
1,428
|
624
|
43.70%
|
|
Athletics
|
1,454.2
|
634
|
43.58%
|
|
Yankees
|
1,423
|
616
|
43.29%
|
Perhaps the Natitude will miss Tyler Clippard more than they imagine as he's been second on the team in relief innings pitched each of the seasons and thrown 214 innings in total.
Going back to the Cardinals, Matheny has made it clear he favors one reliever for each of the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings and he has not deviated from this at all.
|
Season
|
IP Leaders (In
order)
|
% RP IP
|
Top 3 fWAR
|
Total BP fWAR
|
|
2012
|
Mitchell Boggs
|
43.1%
|
2.0
|
-0.33
|
|
Jason Motte
|
||||
|
Fernando Salas
|
||||
|
2013
|
Trevor Rosenthal
|
42.5%
|
3.34
|
4.34
|
|
Edward Mujica
|
||||
|
Seth Maness
|
||||
|
2014
|
Seth Maness
|
45.5%
|
3.1
|
1.96
|
|
Trevor Rosenthal
|
||||
|
Pat Neshek
|
For reasons I'll discuss below, this formula does not appear to have the necessary inputs to work this season. Rosenthal is not a sure thing to provide consistent ninth innings, Walden is a major health risk, and beyond those two, the bullpen is a mash of replacement level pitchers. Seemingly every postseason, we see how badly Matheny can mismanage a bullpen. He does this even when given talented pitchers. The Cardinals do not have as many talented pitchers in their bullpen as they've had in the past several seasons. If there's one Achilles heel to this year's team, it's the bullpen.
Trevor Rosenthal (Closer, Lock): Rosenthal struggled last year as his command took a step back. His walk rate more than doubled from 6.4% in 2013 to 13.6% in 2014. Despite that, he still struck batters out at a very high rate and prevented hard contact, so if he can find his command again, he'll be an elite reliever. Last year demonstrated that he could still be effectively wild without the command, but that does not allow for much margin of error.
Rosenthal's struggles are puzzling. He was equally as erratic against both left-handed and right-handed hitters and did not show any improvement over the course of the season: April was the only month of the season he limited opponents to an OBP below .300.
Rosenthal primarily throws two pitches - a fastball and changeup. He also has a breaking ball but he only threw 77 last year according to Brooks Baseball.
Fastball
|
Changeup
|
|||||||||
Ball
|
Strike
|
Swing
|
Whiff
|
Usage
|
Ball
|
Strike
|
Swing
|
Whiff
|
Usage
|
|
2014
|
34.7%
|
29.9%
|
47.2%
|
12.7%
|
78.1%
|
37.9%
|
30%
|
53.3%
|
22%
|
16.1%
|
2013
|
29.8%
|
33.7%
|
49.7%
|
14.6%
|
79.9%
|
37.4%
|
34.1%
|
56.1%
|
27.6%
|
14.7%
|
Both pitches were less effective and generated fewer swings and misses in 2014. One thing that Rosenthal and the coaches could look to correct are inconsistent mechanics leading to an inconsistent release point. Here are charts of his monthly average release points:
Horizontal:
Vertical:
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The inconsistency in his vertical release point last year is particularly concerning. He's working only from the stretch this Spring Training which could help. In his career, he's held batters to a .199/.303/.280 line with runners on base compared to a .232/.306/.327 line with no one on. His struggles from the stretch are highlighted by batters leading off an inning hitting .264/.342/.368 against him. He's allowed eight home runs in his career and three of those have been hit by batters leading off an inning. This is not just an issue that can be corrected by consistently throwing from the stretch. This also speaks to Rosenthal's focus and ability to mix his pitches. Both must improve in 2015.
Rosenthal did enough to keep his job going into the season, but if his struggles continue in the early season, I'd expect Jordan Walden to take over the closing duties. Rosenthal has the stuff and has showed the poise and command to be an elite reliever, but last year was a step back and he'll need to prove it's not a longer term problem.
Seth Maness, Matt Belisle, Jordan Walden (RH Relief/Setup, Locks):
Maness finished fourth in MLB RP innings in 2014, but produced only 0.3 fWAR compared to 0.9 bWAR. The difference lies in the metrics used to determine the two different variations of WAR. fWAR is driven by FIP and attempts to give a forward-looking sense of value while B-Ref looks at the results as they happened. As such, Fangraphs projects Maness as roughly replacement level going forward. I completely agree.
Maness has significantly outperformed his FIP in his MLB career. He does not strike out batters at an exceptional rate, but he does limit his free passes and gets a lot of groundballs. This is the perfect formula for outperforming FIP, but it is also a risky proposition to bet on in the future. Maness has only showed this level of performance over 142.1 MLB IP, so there's some confidence it's not a fluke, but that's still less than a season of starting pitcher's innings. Most every projection system projects him to have an ERA in the high threes and PECOTA is the least optimistic on him, pegging him for a 3.93 ERA. Left-handed batters killed him to a .314/.357/.495 last year. He had held them to a .726 OPS in 2013 but most of that was based on a .277 BABIP. It's highly concerning that Maness, a groundball pitcher, struggled to get left-handed hitters to hit groundballs.
Pitch
|
2013 GB Rate
|
2014 GB Rate
|
Fourseam FB
|
23.5%
|
10.3%
|
Sinker
|
20.8%
|
14.3%
|
Change
|
16.1%
|
14.8%
|
Curve
|
14.3%
|
0.0%
|
Maness has a very effective slider against right-handed hitters, but in two years of MLB experience has yet to throw it even once to left-handed hitters. While a slider from a right-handed pitcher does break into a left-handed hitter, making it easier to hit, Maness should think about mixing it in this year as what he did last year was not a recipe for success. I expect Maness to regress significantly and not come close to matching his innings total from last year. This could open the door for a new, unproven arm to break into the bullpen.
Matt Belisle is the fourth Matt on the team and the only one who cannot go by the nickname 'Matt the Bat'. He was signed this offseason to a one year deal for $3.5 million after spending the past five seasons in Colorado. Surviving five years in Coors as a reliever is a big testament to his abilities. The guaranteed $3.5 million he received from the Cardinals ended up being the third most guaranteed to a reliever on a one year deal as only former Cardinal Jason Motte and Casey Janssen received more. Both of them have closing experience and better stuff, but come with substantial risk. Belisle cannot match their stuff, but he's seen as less risky.
Belisle's recent durability has been his calling card. He has not been on the DL since 2008 and last year was the first time since 2009 that he failed to pitch at least 72 innings. There is some concern with Belisle as his ERA and FIP both rose to recent career highs last season.
Year
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
2010
|
2.93
|
2.68
|
2011
|
3.25
|
3.07
|
2012
|
3.71
|
2.97
|
2013
|
4.32
|
3.03
|
2014
|
4.87
|
3.74
|
Pitchers in Coors are unlikely to outperform their FIP so it's likely he'll post better raw numbers in the pitcher friendly Busch Stadium. Despite throwing his fastball 91.3 MPH last year - his highest since 2011 - Belisle saw his strikeout rate flounder to 15.3%, the second lowest rate of his career. He also walked batters at the third highest rate of his career and his groundball rate has eroded from 53.2% in 2011 to 46% last season. This is not a good combination.
PECOTA projects Belisle to throw just under 50 IPs with a 3.19 ERA. I'll say he throws slightly more innings but also has a higher ERA. Since 2012, here's how he's done at home (Coors) and on the road.
IP
|
BA/OBP/SLG
|
K/BB
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
|
Home
|
113
|
.304/.344/.446
|
2.74
|
1.45
|
4.76
|
Away
|
104
|
.265/.307/.360
|
3.33
|
1.24
|
3.71
|
I project Belisle to be a replacement level reliever. He's slightly overpaid at $3.5 million, but, as Mike Matheny noted, the Cardinals need another veteran arm in the bullpen until the next wave of relievers come up through the farm system.
Jordan Walden is another newcomer and was acquired from the Braves with Jason Heyward. The Cardinals got Walden not only to improve the 2015 bullpen, but since he will remain under team control in 2016. Even if Heyward departs after 2015 (likely), the team will still have something to show for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. They avoided arbitration with Walden by signing him to a two-year contract with a club option for 2017. The contract guarantees $6.6 million and the option is worth another $5.25 million. Barring an injury, this is a big win for the team. However, that's far from assured with Walden.
Since making the AL All Star team as the Angels' closer in 2011, Walden has racked up five saves, hit the disabled list each year, and only averaged 45 innings per season. Last year he strained his hamstring, but his problems in 2012 and 2013 were arm related. His motion is thought to severely impact his durability:
Jordan Walden is another newcomer and was acquired from the Braves with Jason Heyward. The Cardinals got Walden not only to improve the 2015 bullpen, but since he will remain under team control in 2016. Even if Heyward departs after 2015 (likely), the team will still have something to show for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. They avoided arbitration with Walden by signing him to a two-year contract with a club option for 2017. The contract guarantees $6.6 million and the option is worth another $5.25 million. Barring an injury, this is a big win for the team. However, that's far from assured with Walden.
Since making the AL All Star team as the Angels' closer in 2011, Walden has racked up five saves, hit the disabled list each year, and only averaged 45 innings per season. Last year he strained his hamstring, but his problems in 2012 and 2013 were arm related. His motion is thought to severely impact his durability:
That's not natural and puts a strain on his hips, knees, and arm. This Spring Training, Walden is attempting to alter his delivery and tone down the jump. The hope is any changes do not result in a loss of effectiveness.
When Walden has been healthy over the last three seasons, the results have been very good. His 28.8% strikeout rate ranks 28th among qualified relievers in that stretch and he's held batters to a .210 average. His walk rate jumped to a career high 13.2% last year and he'll look to get that closer to his career average of 10%. Walden's delivery also allows opposing baserunners to run free - something Yadier Molina could help cut down on regardless of any alteration to his delivery. In his career, opposing base-runners are 36/41 against him and last year only 15 pitchers with more than 50 innings had more attempts against them.
I'm optimistic on Walden. He has a very similar skillset to Trevor Rosenthal and if both can stay healthy and limit walks, they'll be a deadly combination in the 8th and 9th innings. 37 of Walden's 58 appearances last year came with one or no days of rest, so he'll be a good fit for Mike Matheny's desired rotation of a clear 7th-8th-9th order each day.
Randy Choate, Kevin Siegrist, Sam Freeman (LH Relief): Choate is one of the most specialized players in the league. HE SHOULD ONLY FACE LEFT-HANDED HITTERS. That's what Choate wants to do, that's what he's being paid to do, and it's his best skill.
Choate was a disaster in last year's post-season because he failed to get left-handed hitters out and was allowed to face right-handed hitters. Since he throws in the low 80s, towards right-handed hitters, they unsurprisingly burned him.
% RH BF
|
ERA
|
bWAR
|
|
2011
|
28.1%
|
1.82
|
1.0
|
2012
|
31%
|
3.03
|
0.4
|
2013
|
29.8%
|
2.29
|
1.2
|
2014
|
40.5%
|
4.50
|
-0.1
|
Choate held left-handed batters to a .093/.205/.147 line last year with a strikeout rate of 31.8% and only a 9.1% walk rate. He can provide a lot of value if he's used appropriately, even at a salary of $3 million. If the team is not willing to use him as a LOOGY, they should trade him to a team that will extract his full value. Barring a trade, Choate is a lock to be on the team.
That leaves Kevin Siegrist and Sam Freeman to battle it out for the second lefthanded relief role and my money is on Freeman to win the spot. Siegrist will eventually become the preferred option but because Freeman is out of options and Siegrist is coming off a disastrous, injury-laden season, Freeman has the inside track if he shows he's capable in Spring Training.
Freeman has thrown 70.1 innings over the last three seasons but has been plagued by poor command each time he's in the big leagues. This was highlighted by him walking the only two batters he faced in last year's postseason. He has a strange reverse platoon split in his MLB career but it's almost entirely fueled by batted ball luck and doesn't fit with his minor league numbers.
PA
|
BA/OBP/SLG
|
K/BB
|
BABIP
|
|
Right
|
175
|
.188/.286/.240
|
1.95
|
.241
|
Left
|
130
|
.278/.378/.380
|
1.60
|
.329
|
PA
|
BA/OBP/SLG
|
K/BB
|
BABIP
|
|
Right
|
570
|
.234/.320/.368
|
1.94
|
.284
|
Left
|
305
|
.230/.293/.291
|
3.40
|
.297
|
When he's been in the majors, he's been asked to get right-handed hitters too often. Like Choate, Matheny should resist this temptation and ONLY USE HIM VS LEFT-HANDED HITTERS. In the end, I think Freeman is an average left-handed pitcher and once Siegrist is healthy, Freeman will be waived. I also think any of the three left-handed pitchers in Memphis - Greenwood, Cooney, and Lyons - are capable of being serviceable left-handed relievers, but Cooney and Lyons will continue to develop as starters for now.
Kevin Siegrist is a big question mark right now. He was a revelation in 2013, his first season as a relief pitcher, only allowing two earned runs in 39.2 IP while striking out 50 after not being on the radar coming into the season. He was equally dominant against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, but began to falter in the playoffs. His 2014 season was a disaster as he missed 52 games while on the disabled list with a shoulder nerve injury and performed very poorly when he was "healthy". He finished with a 6.82 ERA in 30.1 IP and opposing hitters hit .267/.360/.458 against him.
The early reports from Spring Training indicate that Siegrist is feeling healthy, but the ball is missing some zip coming out of his hand. It's unlikely Siegrist will ever match his 2013 production - opposing batters only had a .195 BABIP, so he was bound to regress. He can, however, be a serviceable reliever capable of getting left-handed and right-handed hitters out. He has appeared in one Spring Training game so far and struck out two hitters in one inning on only seven pitches. That must be taken with a grain of salt as he was pitching the 9th inning against the Astros and faced Colin Moran, Domingo Santana, and Carlos Correa.
I project Siegrist to open the season at AAA Memphis since Sam Freeman is likely to open the season in St. Louis due to being out of options. Siegrist will need to establish that he can be effective against at least left-handed hitters regardless of the quality of his pitches.
Carlos Villanueva, Sam Tuivailala, Tyler Lyons, Nick Greenwood, Tim Cooney, Miguel Socolovich (In the Mix): There's probably only room for one of these players as the team will likely carry two of the three left-handed relievers. Villanueva is the most likely to make the team as he has experience and has been a pretty decent reliever as I pointed out in my earlier post. I'll repost the comparison of his starting and relieving innings here:
Reliever
|
Starter
|
|||||||
IP
|
ERA
|
K/BB
|
OPS
|
IP
|
ERA
|
K/BB
|
OPS
|
|
2011
|
33.2
|
1.60
|
1.63
|
.522
|
73.1
|
5.15
|
2.63
|
.762
|
2012
|
33.1
|
3.24
|
1.71
|
.718
|
92
|
4.50
|
3.44
|
.772
|
2013
|
38.2
|
3.03
|
3.8
|
.656
|
90
|
4.50
|
2.17
|
.755
|
2014
|
58
|
2.64
|
3.56
|
.648
|
19.2
|
10.53
|
5
|
.989
|
Total
|
163.2
|
2.64
|
2.49
|
.646
|
275
|
5.11
|
2.82
|
.789
|
Despite being around seemingly forever, Villanueva is only 31 years old and still has plenty left in the tank. Here's his average velocity from Brooks Baseball:
.png)
He has an inside track to making the team but has struggled in his first two Spring Training appearances allowing eight hits in 3.2 innings. Hopefully it all goes back to his first poor appearance against the Nats. He had some bad luck in his second appearance as Jose Altuve singled, took second on a throw home, then easily scored on another single. Villanueva should be able to turn it around - he's thrown 29 of his 33 pitches for strikes, has not allowed an extra base hit, and has struck out five. He's projected to be a useful swing man in the bullpen.
Barring a disaster, Lyons and Cooney will continue to develop as starters in AAA Memphis. Both could be effective relievers at the MLB level - particularly against left-handed hitters - but they are young, have options, and are essential fall backs if there are further starting pitching injuries. Greenwood is also ticketed for Memphis but doesn't project to have the same value as Lyons or Cooney, but he could also become a serviceable LOOGY.
Sam Tuivailala is one of the Cards' most interesting prospects. He was originally drafted as a shortstop out of a California high school in the third round of the 2010 draft. After two seasons, it was clear he was not going to pan out as a position player: He had a .922 fielding percentage at shortstop and a career OPS slightly above .600. Baseball America noted in its 2010, pre-draft write-up of Tui' that he, "attended a small showcase in Sacramento last summer and started a lot of buzz when he hit 93 mph on the gun...he has good size and strength and a projectable frame. He has long arms and legs and has athletic agility. His secondary stuff is evolving. His curveball is a tweener pitch that should be a slider from his three-quarters slot, and he lacks a third pitch. He sits in the 88-89 mph range, with movement. He lacks a lot of mound time and an organization that is strong in pitching development will value him most." Much like Robert Stock, the Cardinals let Tui' attempt to hit, but when he failed, they converted him. Fortunately for him, he did land in an organization that has a strong history of developing pitchers.
Tui' now regularly hits the upper 90s with his fastball and has found a power curve. He's still working on the command of both pitches which Baseball Prospectus notes is his biggest weakness. BP suggests the command wavers due to inconsistent mechanics. This could be corrected as he continues to gain experience pitching. Tui' should start the year at AAA Memphis and will undoubtedly make a major contribution to the MLB team in 2015. He has elite stuff, has taken to coaching, and still has potential to become even more valuable.
Miguel Socolovich is my sleeper to make or contribute to the team. He was signed as a minor league free agent in November and performed well in the Venezuelan Winter League, striking out 21 in 18 innings while only walking two. So far he has appeared in two Spring Training games and shown good pitch efficiency needing only 19 pitches for two innings. He has recorded three strikeouts against one walk in his appearances but both have been in the ninth inning of games against mostly minor leaguers. Socolovich has ten years of minor league experience and is particularly tough on right-handed hitters. He pitched for the Mets AAA affiliate in Las Vegas last year which is notoriously known as one of the most hitter friendly environments in professional baseball. He had a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road compared to 4.76 and 1.73 at home. I'd expect him to possibly crack the 7th inning in St. Louis this year, but more than likely shuttle back and forth between St. Louis and Memphis.
All told it's hard to imagine the 2015 bullpen outproducing the 2014 bullpen. The biggest reason for this is it's highly unlikely any reliever is able to match Pat Neshek's 2.3 bWAR. Jordan Walden will make up a bit for Neshek's contribution, but Seth Maness should regress a bit.
All told, the bullpen is a collection of near-replacement level performers behind Rosenthal and Walden. Sam Tuivailala could provide the seemingly annual shot in the arm come the pennant run, while either Carlos Martinez or Marco Gonzales could also contribute out of the pen in an effort to conserve their innings. The spotlight will be on Mike Matheny to break from his traditional mold of leaning heavily on three relievers. Rosenthal cannot last forever and tired at times last season and there simply is not the same talent level in the bullpen as in past years. It's possible Carlos Villanueva could be an All-Star, like Neshek last season, but that's highly unlikely. Even John Mozeliak described Neshek's season as a "lottery" ticket and let Houston overpay for a fluke performance without tendering an offer.
The bullpen goes under the magnifying glass every October but the problems that plague it then can be addressed during the regular season. This year's bullpen projects to have more same-sided killers than previous years, so the burden is on Matheny to manage it effectively and put the team in the best position to win.
All told, the bullpen is a collection of near-replacement level performers behind Rosenthal and Walden. Sam Tuivailala could provide the seemingly annual shot in the arm come the pennant run, while either Carlos Martinez or Marco Gonzales could also contribute out of the pen in an effort to conserve their innings. The spotlight will be on Mike Matheny to break from his traditional mold of leaning heavily on three relievers. Rosenthal cannot last forever and tired at times last season and there simply is not the same talent level in the bullpen as in past years. It's possible Carlos Villanueva could be an All-Star, like Neshek last season, but that's highly unlikely. Even John Mozeliak described Neshek's season as a "lottery" ticket and let Houston overpay for a fluke performance without tendering an offer.
The bullpen goes under the magnifying glass every October but the problems that plague it then can be addressed during the regular season. This year's bullpen projects to have more same-sided killers than previous years, so the burden is on Matheny to manage it effectively and put the team in the best position to win.
