Barring injury, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos will again see substantially all of the center field playing time in 2015. The two combined to start 156 of 162 games in 2014 with Jay starting 91 of those. Jay’s 91 starts were his fewest at the position since 2011 and his 468 plate appearances were also his fewest since 2010. On the surface, Jay had a nice season in 2014 as he bounced back from a .276 average in 2013 to hit .303, more in line with his career .295 average. He also improved his CF defense by posting positive UZR and DRS values compared to negatives in both in 2013.
However, there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about both of these bounce-backs. First, as mentioned above, Jay did not get anywhere near a full season’s worth of playing time. Defensive statistics are more prone to sampling error than offensive statistics and Jay only made 136 plays in CF according to BIZ. BP’s FRAA stat had Jay as a negative for the second year in a row and trending in the wrong direction. The below plays are typical Jay plays. In both he comes very close to missing the ball but manages to make an outstanding play:
Second, Jay did not reach the majors until he was 25. Despite still being under team control for two seasons, he’ll turn 30 in March. He’s getting old and it’s quite possible that he has lost a step or two as shown by a variety of base-running metrics:
On Base
|
BP BRR
|
EBT
|
OOB
|
BT
|
SB+CS/SBO
|
|
2012
|
190
|
-0.5
|
48%
|
2
|
22
|
12.4%
|
2013
|
224
|
3.6
|
53%
|
5
|
18
|
6.1%
|
2014
|
179
|
-1.6
|
49%
|
9
|
11
|
4.5%
|
Over the past three seasons, Jay has been making more outs on the bases (OOB), taking fewer extra bases (EBT and BT), and running less (SB+CS/SBO). All told his overall base-running contributions were negative last year as compared to the year before, suggesting a player losing speed.
At best he’s an average defender and an average base-runner, but both of those are likely to be negative this season. At the plate he brings an empty average and not much else. He has a very slight platoon split, mostly caused by a .405 SLG vs right-handed pitchers and a .365 SLG vs left-handed pitchers and 25 of his 28 career home runs have come facing right-handed pitching. Overall his 2012-2014 ISO of 0.089 is the 41st lowest of hitters with 600+ PAs over that span. His OBP is boosted by an abnormally high amount of HBP as he has been plunked 49 times over the span, good for second most on that same list of hitters, while on a rate basis he’s the sixth most hitter over the past three seasons. There is some “skill” involved in HBP, but it also adds injury risk and should not be weighted as heavily as other ways a player can reach base in any assessment of a player's value.
The majority of Cardinals fans are too quick to write off Peter Bourjos. On an fWAR/PA basis, he outproduced Jay while bWAR/PA gave a slight advantage to Jay. Bourjos did this while hitting .231/.294/.348 in 294 PAs and only playing 649 innings in the field. In some ways Bourjos is the complete opposite of Jay. He is a very strong defender, a great baserunner, and while his batting line will be less impressive, the drop is not substantial because Bourjos hits for much more power. The knock on Bourjos’ 2014 season was his strikeouts. He struck out 26.5% of the time and that’s not far from his career average. Fans should expect him to continue to strike out and that’s NOT BAD.
Despite substantially fewer opportunities, Bourjos only had three fewer XHB than Jay. That being said, Bourjos is similar to Jay in that he also gets plunked at a high rate, does not hit for much more power, and does not have a platoon split. Bourjos has struggled to stay on the field over his career and his 264 PAs in 2014 were the second most of his five year career while his other three seasons were between 181 and 168. Although 2014 was the first time since 2010 he did not go on the DL, he underwent hip surgery in November and should be at full strength to start camp.
PECOTA projects Jay to hit .279/.343/.381 and Bourjos .246/.303/.385. I think Bourjos has more batting average and on-base upside while Jay’s line is basically what one could expect. At the very least they should see about equal playing time. Jay should never face a left-handed pitcher, unless Bourjos is unavailable, and given Bourjos’ defensive ability, I’d like to see him play the majority of the time vs right-handed pitching. The Cardinals say the job is Jay’s and they gave him a two year extension paying him $6.225 million in 2016, severely limiting his trade value if Bourjos emerges. Bourjos avoided arbitration and signed for $1.65 million and is also under team control through 2016. It seems unlikely both will be on the 2016 roster, but the team should be glad to have both this year. It's hard to imagine Bourjos playing worse than he did in 2014, while Jay is a prime candidate for regression.
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