The Cardinals bench received the biggest make-over of any aspect of the team this offseason. Since the start of the 2012 season, Cardinals pinch hitters have combined to hit .206/.290/.291 in 767 PAs. That’s the fourth lowest batting average and on-base percentage and the lowest slugging percentage of National League pinch hitters over that span. The bench was one area of the team the Cards desperately sought to improve this offseason – particularly in the power department.
The make-over began by bidding adieu to long-time bench stalwarts Shane Robinson and Daniel Descalso. Robinson and Descalso were the only two members of the bench to receive at least 100 PAs as pinch-hitters from 2012-2014. The next most used option, over that span, was current starting first baseman Matt Adams with 51 PAs. Beyond Robinson, Descalsco, and backup catcher Tony Cruz, the bench was a constantly changing group. Over the years, the team attempted to improve the bench with free agent signings like Ty Wigginton and Mark Ellis, but both were disasters. Ellis was signed last off-season and the move was widely praised, but he got injured in spring training and never got into any sort of rhythm. He departed St. Louis after a disappointing .180/.253/.213 season and has yet to find a new employer. Wigginton has also yet to find another employer since being released in 2013, despite being guaranteed his contract in 2014.
The first name who will enter into the mix this year is Mark Reynolds. Reynolds was signed this offseason to a one-year, $2 million contract and the Cards hope that he’s more successful than the previous free agent signings mentioned above. The Cards will be Reynolds’ fifth team in four seasons. He’s changed teams each offseason since 2012 and was released in the middle of 2013 by Cleveland, but promptly caught on with the Yankees. Reynolds’ game is well known at this point. He led the league in strikeouts in four consecutive seasons from 2008-2011, but he also hit 141 home runs over that span. While he has not hit more than 23 home runs since then, he’s also seen his playing time decrease. All told has averaged a home run every 19.9 PA in his career but has also struck out in nearly 32% of his PAs. His average fly ball distance has increased in each of the past two seasons to 299.24 feet in 2014 – good for 17th in baseball. He’ll bring a welcome injection of power to the bench.
I’ll be surprised if Reynolds exceeds 400 PAs in 2015 since the Cards have Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams in front of him, but he could see ample playing time at first if Adams continues to struggle against left-handed pitching. Although Reynolds hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching in 2014, he hasn't traditionally had much of a platoon split, much less a reverse platoon split. Although his career OPS vs left-handed pitching is 39 points higher than his OPS vs right-handed pitching, the difference is entirely due to a much better BB/K ratio. His batted ball profile is similar but he's hit a bit more fly balls vs right-handed pitching at 47.3% compared to 44.6% vs left-handed pitching. His most important contribution, power, is almost identical vs either as he's slugged .457 with a 20% HR/FB rate vs right-handed pitching and .458 with a 19.5% HR/FB rate vs left-handed pitching.
If Carpenter is injured for an extended period of time, it’s unlikely that Reynolds would become the everyday third baseman. His career defensive runs saved at 3B is -56 and he last played third more than first in 2011. Since transitioning to 1B, he's improved his defense in each season and has gone from negative UZRs in 2011 and 2012 to just barely positive in 2013 to decidedly positive last season. He’s an outstanding use of a roster spot and a bargain at $2 million. While some fans will be frustrated with his strikeouts, he remains a threat to hit a home run every time he comes to the plate.
Randal Grichuk is most known for being the player drafted before Mike Trout in the 2009 draft. That fact requires an asterisk since the Angels had consecutive picks so they were going to get Trout regardless. After a promising 2009 debut in the Arizona League, Grichuk progressed slowly and was limited by his aggressive approach at the plate. He topped out at the Angels AA affiliate before being traded to the Cardinals last offseason. He opened 2014 in AAA Memphis and after 21 games found himself in the major leagues. He would shuttle between Memphis and St. Louis the rest of the season, but established himself as a key role player down the stretch and played every game in the playoffs.
Grichuk's 36 postseason PAs best exemplified his skills and weaknesses as a player. He struck out 13 times and only hit .171, but two of his six hits were home runs. This was similar to his regular season MLB line of 116 PAs with a 31/5 K/BB ratio and ten of his 27 hits went for extra bases. It will be interesting to see what the Cards do with Grichuk in 2015. He’s still only 23 years old and amazingly only took ten PAs against pitchers younger than him in 2014. Although he can play every OF position, he's best suited for a corner. While he can provide value at the MLB level due to his defensive ability and power, he has a number of flaws that could be addressed in AAA.
Grichuk has a wide platoon split and if he's on the MLB roster, he could only be used against left-handed pitchers. Last season he hit .297/.337/.627 against left-handed pitching compared to .235/.289/.396 vs right-handed pitching. He also has never drawn more than 28 walks in a minor league season and has a career 479/112 K/BB ratio. While it's unlikely he's going to make significant progress in that department, he needs to show some improvement to be a part time contributor at the MLB level. One easy change he could make to his approach is to start swinging MORE. Grichuk has only swung at 16% of pitches outside of the strike zone in 2013 and 2014 in the minor leagues. In MLB last year, Matt Carpenter was the least likely to swing at a pitch outside of the zone and even he did so 19.3% of the time! Grichuk was slightly more aggressive in 2014 at Memphis, swinging at 19.3% of those pitches and the rate ballooned up to 32.1% in his brief time in MLB. His MLB rate is a bit too aggressive and would have comfortably put him in the top of qualified hitters, but he should look to be somewhere in the low 20s. The average qualified MLB hitter swinging at more than 32.1% of pitches outside of the strike zone made contact 68.45% of the time. Grichuk only did so 38.8% of the time between Memphis and MLB last year. Grichuk cannot be one of the most aggressive hitters in the league because he lacks the bat to ball skills of those hitters. He can, however, be more aggressive than most because he has excellent bat speed and can drive any ball he contacts.
Despite being athletic and capable of playing CF, Grichuk is not an exceptional baserunner and has only been successful on 33 of his 50 attempts in his minor league career and is 0/2 in MLB. Grichuk does play well into his strengths and he needs to translate that skill to the MLB level. In his 2013 and 2014 minor league seasons, he only hit ground balls at 35.8% clip. That would have been among the 15 lowest of qualified hitters in the MLB. Since he does not hit the ball on the ground much, he's able to tap into his power.
There is no doubt Grichuk has an exciting profile and potentially a bright future. His home run against Kershaw in last year's playoffs set the tone of the series and he was without a doubt the best option in RF vs LHP down the stretch. He is always going to have some swing and miss in this game, but that's acceptable since he has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs. He needs to improve vs right-handed pitching and try to refine his approach. The best place for him to reside to start the season is back at AAA. Regardless of where he starts the season, I imagine he'll spend significant time in the big leagues in 2015.
If Grichuk opens the year at AAA, look for Tommy Pham to make the team as the fifth outfielder. Like Grichuk, Pham is capable of playing every position, but he is a very good defensive centerfielder. The knock on Pham is that he has struggled to stay on the field. The 2014 season was the first time that he played in more than 100 games since 2010. He only played 52 games in 2011 and 2012 combined and lost a lot of development time along the way. His injuries over that time included a broken wrist and a shoulder injury sustained from diving into a base. His prospect stock was so low that he was passed over in the 2011-2013 Rule 5 drafts. He was finally added to the 40-Man roster last September after hitting .324/.395/.491 in a full AAA season. That's a significantly higher OBP and OPS than Grichuk. Pham is also a tick faster than Grichuk and went 20/22 on the bases last year and is 113/148 in his career. Due to that speed, Pham has always had a high BABIP so last year's .397 BABIP is not an immediate red flag since his career BABIP is .374. Pham receives a better PECOTA projection than Grichuk due in large part to his superior defensive ability and on-base skills. At this point he is a more polished and consistent player, but in the long run, Grichuk has more upside. Pham will be 27 at the start of the season and does not have much, if anything, left to prove in the minors. If he's healthy, he should be contributing at the MLB level. He's a prototypical fourth outfielder. Look for him to start the season in MLB with Grichuk going to Memphis.
The utility infielder bench spot is the most open position player competition in camp. The favorites are considered to be Pete Kozma and Dean Anna. While Ty Kelly, Greg Garcia, and Jacob Wilson will all get a look, they are all expected to start the season in Memphis.
Kozma, of course, was famously pressed into duty late in the 2012 season when starting shortstop Rafael Furcal went down with an injury. He managed to hit .333/.383/.569 in 26 games and was one of the heroes of the miraculous Game 5 comeback against the Nationals. When Furcal went down again with an injury in Spring Training of 2013, Kozma was the team’s unquestioned starter based on a strong .359/.406/.578 Spring Training. He only contributed a .217/.275/.273 regular season line and went one for 25 in the 2013 NLCS and World Series. The Cardinals knew they had to improve at SS and signed Jhonny Peralta to a four year contract last offseason.
Kozma has a decent glove, and while I would hesitate to call him a plus defender, he’s an above average shortstop and second baseman. His .248/.330/.372 line in AAA last year represented personal offensive progress, but was still below average for his age and even position. He's one of the weakest hitters in the league and although his defense is good, it does not go nearly far enough to make up for his bat. His overall MLB career line of .236/.297/.320 is overly inflated by eight intentional walks in 2013, which was good for ninth in the in the league. It’s laughable that opposing managers opted to pitch around Kozma even once, let alone eight times. He was called upon in the playoffs last year since Kolten Wong struggled vs left-handed pitchers, but that was more about Wong's struggles than Kozma's added value. His minor league platoon split was about equal, so he's equally bad against left-handed and right-handed pitching. There's really no reason that Kozma should be on the team. He's trying to add value any way he can, going so far as volunteering to become the third, emergency catcher, but he's a below replacement level player regardless of how many positions he's able to play.
Dean Anna was signed to a major league contract this offseason after being released by the Pirates. This level of commitment makes it clear that the Cards expect him to contribute at the MLB level. Anna came up through the Padres' system before being traded to the Yankees and eventually claimed off waivers by the Pirates in 2014. He's a career .278/.379/.415 minor league hitter, including .296/.385/.432 in 823 AAA PAs. He is primarily a second baseman, but can play shortstop as well. He should absolutely be on the team over Kozma. He should also never face a left-handed pitcher as he only hit .127/.214/.175 against them in 2014. Anna only struck out 25 times in AAA last season and walked 33 times. In his minor league career he's walked 314 times and struck out 326. He struggled in a brief 25 PA showing in MLB last year, but he should be given another chance this year. Anna will take a solid at-bat - something Kozma struggles to do. Kozma does offer a split defensive upgrade to Anna, but Anna's bat more than makes up for that.
Ty Kelly is my favorite of the group and was acquired from the Mariners for pitcher Sam Gaviglio earlier this offseason. He’ll turn 27 in July and has yet to make his MLB debut, so the clock is ticking. Last year, he hit .263/.381/.412 in the Pacific Coast League with 15 home runs. The 15 home runs were a career high and represent nearly 40% of his career 39 home runs. He’s a switch-hitter and hit for noticeably less power from the right-side of the plate, but was still able to get on base at a .369 clip. Like Anna, Kelly takes good at-bats. In his minor league career, he has actually walked more times than he has struck out with 434 walks and 431 strike outs. Unlike Anna, he cannot play shortstop but he can play a little corner outfield and third base. It's clear the Cardinals had a prototype infielder they wanted to acquire this offseason - versatile defensively with solid on-base skills. Kelly and Anna both fit that to a tee.
Greg Garcia is the least likely of the group to make the team. He made his MLB debut and had a brief cameo last season but only went 2/14 with six strikeouts in 18 PA. His .333 OBP was boosted by an astounding three HBP. He has similar skills to Anna and Kelly, but is not quite on their level. In 2014 he struck out 95 times in 441 AAA PAs while he walked 41 times. He only slugged .382, and while he appeared in 13 games at SS, he made eight errors and should only be considered a second baseman. He appears to be an org player at this point, but he could find his way into 50-100 PAs a year in MLB if everything breaks correctly.
Jacob Wilson faces similar long odds, but is a better hitter than Garcia. He'll look to open the year at AAA and make up for lost time due to a knee injury last summer. He's one of my favorite prospects and is a career .268/.345/.437 hitter although he hit .302/.362/.460 in 283 PAs between the Florida State League and Springfield last seasons. If the power continues to play, he'll force his way to the MLB this summer, but I think it's more likely he debuts in 2016.
Aledmys Diaz is another name to watch. He’ll undoubtedly open the season at Memphis, but should contribute to the MLB team in some way this season. After defecting from Cuba, Diaz was signed to a four year MLB contract last spring. He had not played organized baseball in two years and struggled to get in shape and maintain his health over the long professional season. He’s been in the organization for a year and had the chance to build strength. When he was healthy in 2014, he hit .291/.311/.453 in 125 AA Springfield plate appearances. His defense at shortstop is passable and he can also play second and possibly third. John Mabry, the team’s hitting coach, recently said Diaz was a player to watch this spring and Baseball Prospectus reported that the industry as a whole thought he could really take off this year but are interested to see him perform over a full season before backing him too aggressively.
There is one other player whose role on bench is guaranteed. Tony Cruz has served as the backup catcher since he was called up in May 2011. He received a career high 150 PAs in 2014 due largely to Yadier Molina’s thumb injury. He was arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason and the two sides reached an agreement for him to receive a salary of $775,000 this season. Cruz brings next to nothing to the table. As Yadi’s understudy, he receives a fair amount of praise for his handling of pitchers, but that’s not quantifiable. He’s a defensive liability as opposing baserunners are 50/72 against him in his career, including 18/24 in 2014. He has also allowed ten passed balls and 35 wild pitches in his career with four and 12 of those, respectively, coming in 2014. His rate of passed balls per inning caught was the 11th highest of any catcher with at least 300 innings in 2014. At the plate, he’s a career .225/.271/.310 hitter with only three career home runs and he's trending downward. Last year among batters with at least 150 PAs, he had the third highest infield fly ball rate at 22.2%. More than one in five fly balls he hit were weak infield pop ups, the worst type of batted ball. He was also third in the category among 2013 batters with at least 120 PAs at 25.9% of his fly balls staying in the infield. Since arriving the majors, Cruz has the 13th worst wOBA of anyone.
He was called into action in the 2014 playoffs when Yadi went down with an oblique injury and he surprisingly hit a home run in the eventual NLCS Game 5 loss. The Cards have made a consistent effort to improve their minor league catching depth. This offseason, they acquired Michael Ohlman from the Orioles, the fifth catcher on the 40-Man roster. Ohlman is likely ticketed for AA Springfield while Ed Easley and Cody Stanley will share the time at AAA Memphis. Easley is 29 years old and a career .306/.367/.458 hitter in 695 AAA PAs. He's also improved defensively as he posted the first and second highest CS rates of his career the past two seasons. Stanley was originally drafted by the Cards in 2010 and has slowly worked his way to AAA. One thing that separates him from Cruz and Easley is that he's a left-handed hitter. He's played at AA in both of the past two seasons and posted a .269/.322/.393 line in 727 PAs, although he improved his OPS by 133 points in 2014. He would likely only play vs right-handed pitching in MLB as he's had significant platoon splits over the past two seasons. He's a stronger defensive catcher than Easley as he's thrown out 39% of would be basestealers in his career. I'd expect Stanley will get the lionshare of playing time in AAA, and if he hits, he'll be at least a September call-up and in line for the backup job next season.
It’s clear that Cruz is reaching the end of his career with the club and that could come as soon as this summer if either Easley or Stanley force the team's hand. I would be very shocked if he’s on the team in 2016 as he’ll likely cross the $1 million salary threshold in his second arbitration eligible season.
Beyond Reynolds, Cruz, and Jon Jay/Peter Bourjos, I expect the fifth outfielder and utility infielder spots will turnover frequently. If all breaks right in Memphis, Cruz's bench spot will turnover as well. Kozma is the only one of the group out of options and he cleared optional waivers in 2014, so it’s highly likely he would do so again. I see Anna making the team out of camp, but Kelly, and possibly Kozma, will see some time with the Cards over the course of the seasons. I believe Pham, when healthy, is the best option for the fifth outfielder spot as I think Randal Grichuk should spend most of the season at AAA attempting to improve his overall approach, particularly against left-handed pitchers. Look for Pham to open the season as the fifth outfielder with Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty getting looks during the season. Reynolds should receive at least one at-bat every game and a start or two each week in order to give Adams a break vs left-handed pitching. The team has again stated that it will look to rest Yadi more than in the past, but I would be surprised if that means Cruz exceeds his 2014 appearances. Yadi is too valuable and the gap between him and Cruz seemingly widens each year. Yadi has lost 20 pounds this offseason in an effort to maintain his durability and career longevity and I think he'll succeed in handling a heavy workload once again. The team will be required to reassess the backup catcher role at some point in the season because it’s borderline unacceptable to continue to utilize Cruz in the role.
As silly as it sounds, if Marco Gonzales is on the team, he’s a viable pinch-hitting option on days he will not pitch. As detailed in my fifth starter post, Gonzales was an outstanding hitter in college. The Cards bench is certainly more interesting in 2015 than it has been in the previous three seasons. I am hopeful that Reynolds will bring the much needed power and the array of players behind him can all bring something different to the table. Bourjos and Pham are defense first speedsters. Anna and Kelly are on-base oriented, versatile infielders. Grichuk is another power threat capable of playing every outfield position. The two weak links continue to be Cruz and Kozma, if he's on the team, but I'm hopeful long term solutions to those two spots are forthcoming.
No comments:
Post a Comment