Spring Training Preview, Question 2: Who should be the Fifth Starter?

In a series of seven posts, I'll be looking at some early spring issues facing the Cardinals. Today's question covers the fifth starter.

This is the only truly open competition going into Spring Training. The primary contenders are expected to be Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales, but a healthy Jaime Garcia could force himself into the conversation. Jaime is a complete wild card at this point. All signs indicate that he is healthy, but the optimism is very guarded. He has made fewer than ten starts in each of the last two seasons, so I'm not expecting much from him. I think it’s highly likely Martinez or Gonzales break camp as the fifth starter and Jaime will remain in extended spring training until he’s ready to go on a rehab assignment. That will give the team time to see what Marco or Carlos can do and give Jaime a chance to strengthen his arm and prove that he’s healthy. My ultimate preference would be to acquire another proven starter, possibly Cole Hamels, and bump John Lackey to the fifth slot and Carlos to the bullpen, but it doesn't seem like that’s the Cards' plan.

Carlos and Marco are both 23 years old and have both made a handful of starts in MLB. Gonzales was called up from AA just over a year after being drafted by the Cards in the first round of the 2013 draft. He underwhelmed in his first three starts, going 0-2 and allowing 11 runs while walking 11, and failing to get out of the fifth inning in two of the starts. He was demoted to AAA Memphis where he performed very well in eight starts before serving as a valuable reliever down the stretch and through the playoffs. He is still eligible for prospect lists going into the season and ranked on the Baseball Prospectus (52), Keith Law (64), and Baseball America (TBD, but their #1 Cards prospect) lists.

Gonzales’ best pitch is his change-up and he isn't afraid to use it at any point. Brooks Baseball shows him throwing the change 25.8% of the time which would rank comfortably in the top ten of all pitchers had he qualified. His fastball is only 89-90, so developing a third plus pitch would do a lot for him. Keith Law noted in his write-up of Marco that he has an above-average curveball but Baseball Prospectus said he mixes it in well but it's not a putaway pitch. He’s a great athlete and was a two way player in college at Gonzaga where he hit .311/.382/.402 in 500 career PAs. He actually ranked third among Cardinals pitchers in extra base hits despite only making 12 plate appearances. It's possible that given a full season of at-bats, including some pinch-hitting opportunities, he could provide extra value. Good hitting pitchers like Madison Bumgarner, Travis Wood, and Zack Greinke each raked up about 1 fWAR of offensive value last year and I think Marco would perform similarly.

There’s a lot to be excited about with Marco. His prospect ranking reflects the high floor, but also his limited ceiling. I think the best option for his development is to start the year in Memphis so he can continue to work on developing and improving his breaking ball and refining his command. He also needs to improve his approach vs right-handed batters. In his brief time in MLB, right-handed hitters hit .267/.379/.488 against him while left-handed hitters hit .143/.219/.179. The four MLB HRs he allowed were all hit by right-handed hitters. The results were similar in AAA as all three home runs he allowed were to right-handed hitters and they hit .269/.319/.455 against him while he limited left-handed hitters to a .189/.225/.351 line.

There’s some talk that Marco could be in the bullpen if he fails to crack the rotation. While this makes the 2015 team better, I think the smartest thing the organization can do is give him a chance to pitch in AAA and continue to develop as a starter. There should not be much of a concern about an innings cap for Gonzales. In 2013 he threw just under 130 innings between Gonzaga and the minors and he built on that in 2014 to throw 162 innings through the end of the playoffs. He should be able to handle a full season of starts in Memphis and pitch in relief in September and the post-season, if needed.

That brings the discussion to Carlos Martinez who, absent a trade, should be the fifth starter. The team was unsure what to do with Carlos in 2014. They sent him to Memphis in early August to stretch him out to start, but he didn't make any starts upon returning to St. Louis after spending the minimum time in the minors. Given the hesitation in committing to a firm role for Carlos in 2014, it’s not surprising that he did not make much, if any, progress. In reality, his biggest accomplishment was pitching almost 100 innings without injury – although he threw fewer innings than he did in 2013.

Martinez has tantalizing upside, he just needs to be allowed to unleash it. Yes, the walks are a problem, but his 2014 walk rate was inflated due to an abnormally high amount of intentional walks. Despite only throwing 89.1 MLB innings, Carlos tied for the MLB lead in intentional walks last season. Adjusting for those intentional walks makes a huge difference in Carlos' walk rate. With the IBBs, his 9.3% BB rate would be the ninth highest among qualified starters. Removing seven of the eight IBBs drops his rate to 7.5% and would put his K-BB % just behind Adam Wainwright's - much more manageable.

In addition to continuing to limit walks, he also needs to improve his approach against left-handed hitters. Over the course of his career, left-handed hitters are hitting .304/.384/.445 against him and they've walked more than struck out. Among pitchers who threw at least 30 innings vs left-handed hitters in 2014, only 15 allowed a worse wOBA than Carlos. He held right-handed hitters to a .245/.314/.307 and his performance against them in 2014 was in the top 30 of pitchers with at least 50 innings against right-handed hitters. How can he improve these numbers? Here’s his career pitch usage and outcomes per Brooks Baseball:

	Fastball	Sinker	Slider	Change
vs RH	40.28%	23.97%	32.7%	2.88%
vs LH	49.94%	23.25%	11.86%	14.59%

	Swing		Whiff
	vs RH	vs LH	vs RH	vs LH
Fastball	53.78%	42.28%	12.07%	4.99%
Sinker	51.2%	45.41%	14.43%	5.61%
Slider	46.1%	60%	23.93%	16%
Change	51.43%	42.28%	25.71%	15.45%

Carlos throws drastically fewer sliders to left-handed hitters despite it being the pitch they both swing at and whiff at most frequently. Granted a slider from a right-handed pitcher breaks towards a left-handed hitter, but it’s clear Carlos’ current strategy vs left-handed hitters is not working.

This is different than Marco’s platoon problem because Carlos has to be given the chance to figure this it out at the MLB level. Carlos has shown the ability to dominate minor league hitters, regardless of handedness. In 78.1 career AAA innings, he has a 2.18 ERA with a 70/28 K/BB ratio and has only allowed three home runs. AAA left-handed hitters have hit .248/.309/.335 against him in 178 PAs in 2013 and 2014. He has proved all he can at the minor league level and now needs to adjust to facing the best hitters in the world.

Either he and the coaching staff will work to improve his performance against left-handed hitters or he’ll continue being an effective reliever. I believe the optimal strategy for the team is to put Carlos in relief and acquire another starter. He's dynamite in that role and the bullpen could use the innings. If a trade doesn't happen, the team needs to see what they have in Carlos. He has very high upside and he should be given every opportunity to start. PECOTA projects Martinez to be worth -0.1 WARP, make 19 starts, and post a 4.50 ERA. I think he could do a little better and post an ERA closer to 4.00 while pitching more than 100 IP.