In a series of seven posts, I'll be looking at some early spring issues facing the Cardinals. Today's question covers the top of the starting rotation - Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.
This is the number one question the Cardinals need to answer this spring. If either Wainwright or Wacha are hurt, the idea of trading for a starting pitcher goes from a nice luxury to a necessity. An injury, or continuation of an existing condition, to either would put both Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales in the rotation and further stretch an already thin starting pitcher crop. Perhaps a healthy Jaime Garcia could fill the void, but he's even more of a health wild card and should not be considered as a viable fallback option until he proves he's healthy.
Since returning from the Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss the 2011 season, Wainwright has thrown 667.1 regular season innings and added 66 playoff innings. Only Justin Verlander, 662.2 IP and 56.1 playoff IP and James Shields, 683.1 IP and 25 playoff IP, joined Wainwright in throwing more than 700 total innings over that span while Clayton Kershaw finished just a hair short at 662 regular season IP and 35.2 playoff IP. The wear was clear towards the end of 2014 as all three faltered.
Verlander struggled through his worst season since leading the AL in losses in 2008 and allowed 104 runs with a WHIP just under 1.40. He never got on track in 2014 and September was the only month of the season that opposing batters reached base below a .300 clip, but they still posted a .293 OBP. His salary jumped to $28 million for the 2015 season and he is owed that amount annually through 2019. It's just one of the Tigers' many disastrous contracts.
"Big Game James" averaged five innings a start in five 2014 postseason starts and allowed a 6.12 ERA. The performance was bad enough to make teams think twice about signing him this offseason. He eventually landed with the Padres on a four year contract in early February but ended up getting much less money than most expected at the start of the offseason.
Wainwright skipped his final start of the regular season, then failed to make it out of the fifth inning in two of his three playoff starts before turning in a gutsy, masterful performance in what turned out to be the last game of the Cards' season. Shortly after the Cards were eliminated, the team announced Wainwright had "minor" elbow surgery to trim cartilage. The announcement took many by surprise as manager Mike Matheny, GM John Mozielak, and Wainwright had all insisted he was healthy throughout September and October. He has reported to Spring Training early and is on track to start Opening Day barring any setbacks.
Michael Wacha's situation is murkier. Wacha was drafted by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2012 draft using the compensation pick for losing Albert Pujols. He had an amazing minor league debut after being draft but primarily pitched out of the bullpen. He impressed enough in 2013 Spring Training to be assigned to AAA Memphis and made his MLB debut on May 30, 2013. He shuffled between starting and relieving in 2013 in an effort to save innings so that he would be available in the playoffs. The plan worked and he was the MVP of the NLCS after making two starts without allowing a run.
Expectations were high in 2014 and through his first four starts, Wacha had exceeded them with a 1.73 ERA and a 25/3 K/BB ratio. The problems started in his April 23rd start in New York when he walked five and only lasted four innings. In his penultimate start before going on the DL, he only threw four innings, walked four, and did not record a strikeout. It was and remains only the second of his 51 professional appearances without recording a strikeout. The other was his first start of the AAA season in April 2013.
He went on the DL following his June 17th start against the Royals and even John Mozielak admitted the
injury was, "a little shocking to all of us. In terms of how long he's going to be out, I don't know that. We're going to give him a couple weeks and see how he is and then re-evaluate." It ended up being a stress fracture in his shoulder and he missed 68 games. The team was confident its plan of rest and rehab, followed by a lengthy strength building process, would be the best long-term option.
Unfortunately, the timing did not work out as Wacha was only able to make one minor league appearance before the minor league season ended. He was added to the MLB roster on September 4th and made two starts before being skipped in the rotation since it was clear he was not ready to be making MLB starts. He returned to make two more late September starts. All told he made four starts totaling 16.2 innings and allowed 31 baserunners while only striking out 11. He never appeared right and was prone to overthrowing as his average fastball velocity in those starts was above 94 MPH while he typically is 92-93. The Cardinals insisted he was healthy and could pitch relief in the playoffs, but he wasn't called upon until Game 5 of the NLCS, the BIGGEST MOMENT OF THE SEASON, when this happened:
I'm looking forward to reading about this decision, and many others from both the 2013 and 2014 playoff runs, in Mike Matheny's second
Manifesto to be published sometime in 2020. But seriously, the Game 5 showing only added more questions about Wacha's 2015. He should have been shut down when it was clear he would not be able to rehab enough to regain his stuff and he certainly should have been left off the playoff roster. Even with him on the playoff roster, he should not have been thrown in the Game Five situation. He has reported to camp healthy and is throwing bullpens -
with a new, sharper curve - and is confident that his shoulder will hold up.
There's no way of knowing if Wainwright's elbow and Wacha's shoulder are actually healthy until they're pitching in Chicago the first week of April. Wainwright has averaged 5 fWAR over the past three seasons and Wacha has accumulated 3 fWAR in only 171.2 career MLB IP. Wainwright has also averaged over seven innings a start in each of the last two seasons which helps keep the bullpen fresh. Even if both are not as effective as they've been in the past, simply staying healthy and combining for close to or above 400 innings is essential for the Cards' success in 2015. If one of them experiences an injury setback, the team will likely need to go outside the organization to find help as the internal options beyond Marco Gonzales are underwhelming.
The current fallbacks beyond Marco, and Jaime, include Carlos Villanueva, Tyler Lyons, and Tim Cooney. John Gast, the starter Wacha initially replaced in 2013, is recovering from an even more severe shoulder injury, only threw 64.1 innings last year, and is not a viable option.
The best case scenario for the team is to use Villanueva as a long-reliever. After not making any starts in 2010, the Blue Jays and Cubs both used him as a starter at times over the last four seasons. The Cards signed him in early February on a minor league contract and it seems likely that he'll break camp with the team. I'll touch more on the bullpen in a future post, but for now, the results show that Villanueva is clearly a better reliever than a starter:
|
Reliever
|
Starter
|
|
IP
|
ERA
|
K/BB
|
OPS
|
IP
|
ERA
|
K/BB
|
OPS
|
2011
|
33.2
|
1.60
|
1.63
|
.522
|
73.1
|
5.15
|
2.63
|
.762
|
2012
|
33.1
|
3.24
|
1.71
|
.718
|
92
|
4.50
|
3.44
|
.772
|
2013
|
38.2
|
3.03
|
3.8
|
.656
|
90
|
4.50
|
2.17
|
.755
|
2014
|
58
|
2.64
|
3.56
|
.648
|
19.2
|
10.53
|
5
|
.989
|
Total
|
163.2
|
2.64
|
2.49
|
.646
|
275
|
5.11
|
2.82
|
.789
|
Lyons and Cooney provide value as cheap, spot starters. If either of them need to take the ball every five days, the season will be in shambles. Cooney is the better prospect of the two - he has ranked on the team's top 10 prospect lists in each of the past two seasons - but he has average stuff and it does not project to translate well to the majors. The best case scenario for him is a back end starter with an extremely small margin for error. He made 25 starts at AAA Memphis last year and had an extreme platoon split. Right-handed batters hit 18 home runs against him and reached base at a .331 clip while left-handed hitters hit .219/.292/.291 with only three home runs. He'll likely provide depth as a left-handed reliever in the bullpen or make a spot start or two.
Tyler Lyons has made 23 appearances, including 12 starts, in MLB over the past two seasons and has actually held his own in the limited exposure. He has thrown 89.2 innings with a 4.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He, too, has a wide platoon split. In his MLB career, left-handed hitters have a .500 OPS while right-handed hitters have a .778 OPS. The split was similar at AAA in 2014 with left-handed hitters hitting .577 OPS compared to .820 OPS for right-handed hitters. The splits also suggest that Lyons should be used as a reliever. In 11 MLB relief appearances, totaling 24 innings, Lyons has allowed 16 hits while striking out 26 and walking only six. That was good for a 1.13 ERA compared to a 5.89 ERA as a starter. His 2014 appearances in Memphis told a similar story as he allowed a 1.023 WHIP as a reliever but it ballooned to 1.38 as a starter.
Behind Marco Gonzales, who is the clear sixth starter, but should pitch in the minors to maximize his potential, there are no good options. Villanueva, Lyons, and Cooney all provide value since they COULD start, if needed, but all three are much more effective in relief roles. Lyons and Cooney in particular are prime trade pieces as I believe they could both pitch effectively out of an MLB bullpen.
Baseball Prospectus' PECTOA projects Wacha and Wainwright to combine for 7 WARP. This is tied for second in MLB of any team's top two starters. Only Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw project for more and the Nationals' Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer also project for 7. PECOTA projects the Cards' duo to throw 417.1 IP. The Steamer projection system is not as optimistic. The system projects Wainwright to throw 173 IP, his fewest since 2008 when he missed over 70 games with a finger sprain, and be worth 2.5 fWAR. Similarly, Steamer projects Wacha to throw 153 IP and accumulate 1.7 fWAR. Steamer projects the two to throw about 90 fewer innings than PECOTA, which effectively further reduces their values because those 90 innings will have to be eaten by a replacement level starter and increases the burden on the bullpen over the course of the season.
The Steamer projection represents the absolute lower bound of production needed from Wainwright and Wacha for the team to be a strong contender for the division title. Although I have my issues with Steamer, I think tempering expectations for the two is reasonable given the health uncertainty. As both begin to appear in Spring Training games, and ultimately the regular season, it will be easy to tell if they are healthy.
None of the questions I am writing about will have a bigger impact on the Cards' success this season than this question. In my mind, the duo's innings and production go hand in hand. PECOTA projects only six teams to get 400 or more innings from two of their starters and I don't think it's likely Wainwright and Wacha cross that threshold if they aren't producing. If they aren't producing, it likely means they are not healthy, and then the team has major problems.
