This post was in the works prior to the Tuesday's news that Adam Wainwright would be returning to St. Louis due to abdominal soreness. The Cardinals expect to receive the results of the examination later this week. I'm in favor of trading for Hamels even if Wainwright is completely healthy, but if Wainwright is hurt and will miss a significant amount of time, the importance of making a trade increases.
The Cardinals should seriously consider trading for Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, even if it means including Carlos Martinez. The Cubs and Pirates are young teams that will improve each year. The Cubs in particular seemed poised to utilize their outstanding farm system and massive financial resources to get better in a hurry. On the flip side, the Cardinals core of Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, and Yadier Molina will be a combined 100 years old this year, Jason Heyward is a free agent at the end of the season, and, outside of Stephen Piscotty, there is scant offensive talent on the horizon in the farm system.
The Cardinals should seriously consider trading for Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, even if it means including Carlos Martinez. The Cubs and Pirates are young teams that will improve each year. The Cubs in particular seemed poised to utilize their outstanding farm system and massive financial resources to get better in a hurry. On the flip side, the Cardinals core of Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, and Yadier Molina will be a combined 100 years old this year, Jason Heyward is a free agent at the end of the season, and, outside of Stephen Piscotty, there is scant offensive talent on the horizon in the farm system.
If all of the Cardinals starters are healthy, they have one of the best rotations in the league. However, there are significant questions surrounding the health of their top two projected starters, Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha, and the depth beyond Marco Gonzales is thin. Additionally, John Lackey will be 36 and posted a 4.27 FIP and 4.30 ERA in his ten starts with the team in 2014. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projects him to be just above replacement level. This is fine for a fourth or fifth starter, but an injury to the top of the rotation pushes Lackey into the third starter role and he is not suited for it.
What would a trade for Hamels look like? It has been reported that the Phillies have stated that any trade with the Cards will start with Carlos Martinez. I’d be ok with that. As detailed in my fifth starter post, Martinez oozes with upside, but he has some work to do to convert the raw talent into MLB production. While the Cards can afford to give him a chance to do this as a fifth starter, asking much more from him is a stretch. The issues he faces in his development are significant and I think it's highly likely that he becomes a valuable relief pitcher rather than a starter.
The Cards top three prospects are Gonzales, outfielder Stephen Piscotty, and young right-handed pitcher Alex Reyes and they are all among the top 100 prospects in baseball. If the Cards are including Martinez, it’s unlikely that they would also include any of those players unless Philadelphia agreed to pay a significant portion of Hamels’ future salaries. Despite making his MLB debut last summer and contributing through the playoffs, Randal Grichuk is still eligible for inclusion on the prospect lists and ranked as high as fourth on Baseball America's. That's decidedly too high and he should be ranked somewhere in the 8-15 range. All of the scouting reports acknowledge he has above average power and is an excellent athlete capable of playing all three outfield positions. They also acknowledge that his approach needs to be refined. Even without an improved approach, his positives outweigh the negatives and he could provide at least average value in MLB this year. I touched more on Grichuk in my post on the bench. He is only 23 years old and would be an obvious second piece to any deal. It's possible the Phillies would prefer Peter Bourjos to Grichuk. While I like Bourjos' chances of bouncing back from his awful 2014 season, I think he and Grichuk have about the same trade value. I'd rather give up Grichuk, but would not hesitate to make a deal if the only difference was giving up Bourjos instead of Grichuk.
The third, and possible fourth pieces, will take the most work to agree on. If the trade includes Martinez and Grichuk, the Phillies will have already received two players capable of contributing to this year’s team, so they will likely seek one or two high-upside players. I have to think young outfielder Magneuris Sierra would be at the top of the Phillies’ list.
Sierra was the Cards’ minor league player of the year last season after hitting .386/.434/.505 in the Gulf Coast League as an 18 year old. He made the back halves of Keith Law and Baseball America’s organizational top 10 prospects and garnered a 'Prospect on the Rise' mention from Baseball Prospectus. He is a no doubt future center fielder with good speed and outstanding bat control, leading some to project a plus bat. He has a small frame and only had 17 XBHs in his 223 PAs, so he does not project to ever hit for much power. He just completed his first season in the United States and played in the Gulf Coast League. He's very far away and his highly conservative rankings reflect this. In order to improve his value, he'll need to show that he can play at a high level in a full season league. He may get the chance to do this in 2015, but the Cards could hold him in Extended Spring Training until the New York-Penn League starts in the summer. As enticing as Sierra's upside is, it's more likely that he flames out in full season ball and this is the peak of his value. Trading him could come back to bite the Cards, but he is exactly the type of player the Phillies should be seeking to round out a Hamels trade.
A package of Carlos Martinez, Randal Grichuk, and Magneuris Sierra should be enough to pry Hamels from the Phillies. The Cards have the financial resources to absorb the remaining money due on his contract and adding him to a rotation maximizes the team’s chances of winning before its window closes. Swapping Martinez for Hamels greatly improves the 2015 and 2016 rotations without hurting the team much beyond that. While there’s a chance that Grichuk develops into an everyday centerfielder, there remain significant questions regarding his aggressive approach and struggles against same-side pitching. Those could prevent him from reaching his ceiling. Finally, Sierra offers the highest upside of any prospect outside of the Cards’ top three prospects. None of their top prospects should be included in a trade unless the Phillies eat some of Hamels’ money. Sierra is a long way away and while he could develop quickly, it’s unlikely he’ll be contributing at the major league level until 2018 at the earliest. He’s exactly the type of player the Phillies should look to acquire a third piece in any Hamels trade as he’s not a top prospect, but if he’s able to repeat his GCL performance in a full season league, will see his prospect stock ascend.
This is really about the Cardinals current team composition, the competitive landscape, and their resources. They are an aging team with a shallow rotation. Adding a Cy-Young caliber arm, capable of making 30 starts a year, would do wonders to any team, but would bring stability to a rotation with a lot of questions. The Cards division is improving quickly and the Cards should seek to maximize their chances of winning while the younger teams are still improving. Finally, the Cardinals have stated they have significant financial flexibility. It's clear they will be major players in next year's free agent market and getting Hamels now somewhat limits the downside risk associated with free agents because he is only under contract for four years. Any pitcher signed in next year's free agency will likely require six or more years, so Hamels is a significantly less risky asset than would be available on the open market.
This is really about the Cardinals current team composition, the competitive landscape, and their resources. They are an aging team with a shallow rotation. Adding a Cy-Young caliber arm, capable of making 30 starts a year, would do wonders to any team, but would bring stability to a rotation with a lot of questions. The Cards division is improving quickly and the Cards should seek to maximize their chances of winning while the younger teams are still improving. Finally, the Cardinals have stated they have significant financial flexibility. It's clear they will be major players in next year's free agent market and getting Hamels now somewhat limits the downside risk associated with free agents because he is only under contract for four years. Any pitcher signed in next year's free agency will likely require six or more years, so Hamels is a significantly less risky asset than would be available on the open market.
